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Pretoria - The SA Reserve Bank (Sarb) may revise downward its economic growth forecast for South Africa in its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, it said on Tuesday.
In its monetary policy review (MPR), released in Pretoria, Sarb said despite a decent rebound in growth in the fourth quarter of 2012, growth in the first quarter of 2013 had been worse than expected.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth amounted to 0.9% in the first quarter of 2013.
The bank’s growth forecast for 2013, which was revised marginally upwards at the March 2013 MPC meeting, was again lowered in May.
"The bank’s forecast for growth at the May meeting was 2.4% with downside risks. With the latest data releases, this may need to be revised down at the next meeting of the MPC," Sarb said in its MPR document.
The MPR analyses the latest developments and factors affecting inflation. It also reviews recent monetary policy development and discusses the economic outlook.
Sarb said some of the improvement in the global conditions filtered through to South Africa at the beginning of 2013, but export demand and commodity prices remained weak.
In subsequent months, a range of prominent domestic factors had deteriorated, negatively affecting the local economic landscape.
These included instability in the labour market, which had undermined confidence, investment and economic output.
The bank said stronger global growth would help reduce South Africa’s external and domestic vulnerability - its current account and fiscal deficits.
Sarb said despite stronger inflation momentum over the short-term, "inflation expectations remain anchored around the upper end of the inflation target range".
Headline inflation levelled at 5.9% from February 2013 to April 2013, while core inflation remained below 6%.
Underlying inflationary pressures remained subdued, but the depreciation of the rand had already affected petrol prices "and posed a risk in terms of second-round inflationary effects", the bank said.
The rand weakened to R10 against the US dollar, driven mainly by a decline in commodity prices. It last reached this level in March 2009.
In January 2013, inflation stood at 5.4% with the release of the reweighted, rebased and revised basket of goods used to calculate the consumer price index (CPI).
The following months, with a weakening rand, the rate of inflation increased to 5.9% in February and remained at this level through to April 2013.
SARB said February 2013 marked 12 months of CPI inflation remaining within the bank's targeted range of between 3% and 6%.
Food price inflation declined by 1.6 percentage points, from a peak of 7.5% in November 2012, to 5.9% in March 2013.
It then increased to 6.3% in April 2013 and remained a key contributor to the CPI.
Fuel prices had been fluctuating since September 2012.
The price of 95 octane unleaded petrol in Gauteng decreased from R12.20 a litre in October 2012 to R11.86 in January 2013, before increasing to R13.08 in March.
Furthermore, the increase in the fuel levy, the Road Accident Fund levy and the pipeline levy set by the National Energy Regulator pushed the price of 95 octane unleaded petrol in Gauteng to an all-time high of R13.20 a litre.
