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Sarb indicator dips, but growth on track

Johannesburg - The SA Reserve Bank's (Sarb's) leading economic indicator dipped slightly in March compared to February, although it showed that South Africa's recovery is sustained.

The indicator provides a guideline for economic growth for at least six months ahead. In March the indicator level was 135.0 compared to 136.2 in February, a 0.9% decrease.

The Sarb said that seven of the 10 components of the indicator, which is a composite, were negative or decreased in March, while only three were positive.

The largest positive contribution to the movement in the leading indicator came from the number of residential building plans passed, followed by the interest rate spread.

The major negative contributors were the 12-month percentage change in the business cycle indicator of SA's major trading partners and the 12-month percentage change in job advertisement space.

The leading indicator had been over 120 and nearer to 130 for the whole of 2007. It slowed, however, and then dropped when SA entered recession in late 2008.

The indicator aims to point to the direction the economy is taking rather than the level of economic activity.

 
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