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Sarb index points to sustained growth

Johannesburg - SA's leading economic indicator rose 8.7% year-on-year (y/y) in November from an 11.4% increase in October, the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) said on Tuesday.

The seasonally adjusted leading economic indicator provides a guideline for economic growth for at least six months ahead.

The latest increase takes the indicator to an index level of 129.7 which, on a trend basis, is higher than the 121.8 index level in December 2009.

Month-on-month (m/m) growth remained in negative territory, registering a 0.1% decline from a 0.6% decline in October. October's index was an unrevised 129.8.

The leading indicator had been over 120 and nearer to 130 for the whole of 2007. It slowed, however, and then declined when SA entered recession in late 2008.

The coincident indicator - which moves in line with the economy - for October came in at 143.0 from a revised 142.3 (142.2) a month before.

The leading indicator confirmed a few months ahead that SA's economic growth would slow somewhat in 2010.

The Sarb uses more than 200 indicators to determine the turning points of the South African business cycle.
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