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Sacci: Trade prospects positive

Johannesburg - Trade conditions became "moderately" positive in March, the SA Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) said on Thursday.

"It appears that the public holidays in March did not have a negative effect on trade conditions and may have even been supportive of improved trade," Sacci said in a statement.

"The improvements in trade conditions between February and March 2013 indicate that, despite an overall depressed business mood... for March 2013, there remain pockets of optimism in the economy."

There was an improvement in the Trade Activity Index (TAI) from 42 points in December to 52 in January and 56 in March.

The seasonally adjusted TAI also improved by five index points to 54 in March, up from 49 in February.

Trade conditions were four points lower in March, compared to the same month last year.

All sub-components of trade activity increased in March and sale volumes registered the highest level since November.

Sacci said supplier deliveries improved to 57 in March from 53 in February, following a low of 41 in December.

The new orders index also moved ahead to 56 by five index points, while the inventory build-up indicator remained at 53 in March.

The Trade Expectations Index (TEI) showed that trade prospects for the next six months were positive, with the index on the 63 mark in March.

Trade prospects were stable over the last four months and remained above the 60 index mark, it said.

The seasonally adjusted TEI increased to 62 from 61 in February 2012.

"Current and expected input prices appear to have stabilised, albeit at higher levels," said Sacci.

"The lagged impact of the continued weakening of the rand in March 2013 may however continue to have consequences for input costs for the rest of 2013."

The input price index was higher by two points than a year-ago, and the sales price index was three points lower than in March 2012.

"The upward pressure on sales prices eased in March 2013 as the index declined by another point to 61. The tight trade conditions to some extent contained sales price increases," it said.

"The constrained employment conditions in the trade environment eased in March 2013 with the index moving to positive territory from 45 in February 2013 to 52."

The index on short-term employment expectations remained in positive territory at 53 points, compared to 54 in February.


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