Johannesburg - In response to the bleak SA growth assessment yesterday by ratings agency Moody's, global analysts Lehman
Brothers say they feel it will be "rather difficult" for the country to enter a recession defined as two quarters of contraction in GDP.
They point out that this would relate to non-seasonally adjusted GDP.
Moody's came out with a pretty bleak credit assessment on Tuesday, saying that the economy would most likely be in recession this year, with growth of only 3%. It kept the ratings as they were, note the Lehman Brothers analysts.
South Africa's real gross domestic product at market prices on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis rose by 2.1% in the first quarter of 2008 from 5.3% in the fourth quarter of 2007.
This was the lowest growth since the third quarter of 2001, when the seasonally adjusted real GDP was 1.1%.
Non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year GDP in the first quarter,
however, was placed at 4.0% from 4.6% in the fourth quarter.
- I-Net Bridge