Johannesburg - Trade conditions moved into positive territory as the
trade activity index (Tai), which measures present trade conditions,
improved by 3 points to 53 last month.
This is according to the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) Trade Conditions Survey for November 2011.
However, a statement released by the chamber on
Wednesday read that the seasonally adjusted Tai was 49 and increased by
one point from 48 in October 2011.
"The seasonally adjusted Tai stood at 53 in November 2010."
Although retail sales usually have the highest sales
volumes in December, the Tai has its heightened activity in November,
reflecting high volumes of business-to-business trade before year end,
the statement read.
"The sales volumes index improved to 60 from 52 after increasing by 3 points in October 2011.
"The inventory index came down by 4 points in November
given the increased sales in November. All the other components of trade
activity increased, apart from the employment index that declined by 2
points to 46 in November 2011."
Sacci added that expectations in the trade environment
declined by 2 points with the Tei (trade expectations index) measuring
53 in November 2011. The Tei remains 5 points below the 58 of November
last year.
The outlook for sales, new orders, employment and supplies for the next six months was slightly lower than in October, it added.
"Expected weaker demand caused the backlog on orders index to decline while inventory levels were virtually unchanged.
"The current sales price index decreased marginally by 1
point to 60 while the input price index decreased by 5 index points to
69 in November 2011."
It said this was surprising, given the sharp increase in producer inflation and other cost increases.
"The six-month outlook for sales prices however continued to increase to 71 from 70 in October 2011.
"Expectations for input prices rose by 2 points in November, which is 13 points above the most recent low of 66 in July 2011.
"Inflationary pressures will become more widespread as
the prices of basic inputs such as fuel, public utility services and
labour costs enter the general price level.
"The weaker rand appears to be settling around R8
to the US dollar and will unfavourably impact cost structures and
domestic inflation."