Johannesburg - South Africa may have to take responsibility for a R20bn shortfall in the revenue pool of the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu), which finances a significant portion of the state budgets of neighbours like Lesotho.
At the recent Sacu council meeting in Swaziland the South African Treasury warned that collections for the current financial year and the year to end-March 2011 would amount to only an estimated 70% of that budgeted for.
The budgeted payments to the BLNS countries (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, the other members of Sacu) for the 2010 and the 2011 financial years are currently R27.9bn and R26.2bn respectively, bringing the estimated shortfall to about R16bn.
The updated figures will be available only at the end of October, said Treasury.
Every year an estimate is made as to what Sacu's income will be and then the South African Treasury makes quarterly payments based on this estimate to member states.
A R9bn deficit has already been recorded for the year to March 2009.
Although it is understood that part of this shortfall can be made up from surpluses during 2006/07 and 2007/08, there is still a R4bn deficit in the pool.
In terms of the Sacu agreement, this shortfall must be recovered from member states.
But it seems unlikely that the BLNS countries can afford to meet these shortfalls.
Member states' income for the year to end-March 2010 is expected to be considerably lower than previously thought. Swaziland's income will drop by 20%-odd, and that of Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia by about 17%.
This will have a massive effect on these countries' economies, while their limited state revenues are further affected by the economic downturn.
Diamond exports from Botswana, the richest BLNS member, will for instance be an estimated 55% down this year.
Lesotho and Swaziland finance more than 60% of their state budgets from Sacu transfers, and are expected to be hurt the most.
Sacu earns its revenue from import and excise duties for the region, which are then divided among the member states.
The lion's share of the BLNS portion comes from import duties, which have declined significantly owing to a reduction in imports. South Africa's payments come largely from excise duties levied on products like liquor and cigarettes, and are not seriously affected.
- Sake24.com
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