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Johannesburg - The economy is likely to have grown by 4.3% in the first quarter of 2011, from 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2010, Hugo Pienaar, senior economist at the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), said on Friday.
Stats SA will release the first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures next week.
"There's robust growth expected for the early stages of this year. But the growth that we are seeing is pretty unbalanced at this stage," Pienaar said.
The manufacturing sector is expected to have contributed significantly to the 4.3% growth forecast. Pienaar added, however, that while commodity exports were booming on increased demand from some countries, including China, other manufacturing exports were yet to fully recover.
Pienaar said that 45% of SA's manufactured exports were still destined for developed markets which were growing at low rates, suggesting that exports would still be under some pressure.
The BER expected interest rates to be hiked in the second half of 2011, given rising inflation and as the SA Reserve Bank (Sarb) sought some sort of "normalisation" in interest rates.
"It's not a significant tightening that we're forecasting," said Pienaar, who added that the expected 50 basis-point rate hike in 2011 would be the first of four rate hikes until the end of 2012.
The consumer price index would average 5.0% in 2011, 0.1% below the Sarb's forecast, while GDP was seen averaging 3.7% in 2011 from 2.8% in 2010, rising slightly to 3.8% in 2012.
The rand was expected to remain firmer against major currencies due to continued low interest rates in developed economies, capital inflows into developing markets, dollar weakness and euro gains.
Stats SA will release the first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures next week.
"There's robust growth expected for the early stages of this year. But the growth that we are seeing is pretty unbalanced at this stage," Pienaar said.
The manufacturing sector is expected to have contributed significantly to the 4.3% growth forecast. Pienaar added, however, that while commodity exports were booming on increased demand from some countries, including China, other manufacturing exports were yet to fully recover.
Pienaar said that 45% of SA's manufactured exports were still destined for developed markets which were growing at low rates, suggesting that exports would still be under some pressure.
The BER expected interest rates to be hiked in the second half of 2011, given rising inflation and as the SA Reserve Bank (Sarb) sought some sort of "normalisation" in interest rates.
"It's not a significant tightening that we're forecasting," said Pienaar, who added that the expected 50 basis-point rate hike in 2011 would be the first of four rate hikes until the end of 2012.
The consumer price index would average 5.0% in 2011, 0.1% below the Sarb's forecast, while GDP was seen averaging 3.7% in 2011 from 2.8% in 2010, rising slightly to 3.8% in 2012.
The rand was expected to remain firmer against major currencies due to continued low interest rates in developed economies, capital inflows into developing markets, dollar weakness and euro gains.
