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Cape Town - South Africa should position itself as the Hong Kong of Africa and for that the country needs a social compact going forward, Helmo Preuss, a forecaster of Ecosa, told a property investment conference.
"People look at South Africa with its mineral wealth and ask why we are messing up. We will be lucky if we get even 2% growth this year," he said at the IPD South Africa Property Investment Conference in Cape Town on Thursday.
"The SA economy could continue the 'kangaroo hop' it is most likely in now, or, if there is post Marikana tension, we can expect increased government interventions to try and fix things. This would not be a nice place for the country to be."
He pointed out that SA's economic outlook is back at levels last seen in the early 1990s. Furthermore, the country's economy did not harness the benefit of the low oil price, because of the impact of load shedding.
"Load shedding made a direct impact on mining, manufacturing and retail. It has also contributed to the poor sentiment among consumers and in the business sector. Due to load shedding the private sector is keeping fixed investment on hold," said Preuss.
He sees various sign posts or risks for SA going forward. One of these would be if the global equity market should crash.
Another risk would be a tightening of the US monetary policy - many expect this most likely to happen in September.
"It is still uncertain what the unintended consequences of that might be," said Preuss.
