Tripoli - When Omar's boss called him from abroad to tell
him he wanted to come back Tripoli to restart his manufacturing business, the
Libyan employee joked to his foreign manager the visit would just be personal.
"I said: 'Boss, you would be spending all your time
with me, there is no one to do business with'," said Omar, who would only
give his first name. "I told him to wait."
Omar's boss, like many other international businessmen, is
keen to return to Libya to get his venture back up and running after eight
months of civil war ousted Muammar Gaddafi from 42 years in power.
But in a nation lacking security and bristling with weapons,
their re-entry may not be swift or easy.
Within days, Prime Minister Abdurrahim El-Keib will name a
new government that will have the tough task of asserting the National
Transitional Council's (NTC's) control of a fractured country, reviving the
economy and introducing democracy.
It will have to build institutions from scratch, sustain the
revival of Libya's oil industry and disarm militias.
"It's a rather dark picture that is to be painted right
now. Offices have been looted in the conflict, it's not clear who is in charge,
who you need to speak with," said one European businessman who returned to
Libya a few weeks ago after being evacuated during the conflict.
"I have tried to go find my old clients to get money
that was owed, but how can they pay me back? Services aren't back up and
running, banks are still limited in their operations."
Post-war Libya is also grappling with a banknote shortage.
The businessman had visited his old office and home, but
like many other foreigners in Libya now, preferred to stay in the secure
compound of one of Tripoli's plush hotels.
"There is no police, no order right now," he said.
"But I am hopeful things will get better."
Bringing unruly and heavily armed militias under government
control is a daunting challenge. Many foreign workers are adopting a
wait-and-see approach until stability is restored.
"The economy is suffering from a lack of funds and the
spread of weapons is one of the reasons for this with regard to tourism and
foreign companies," Tripoli Islamist militia leader Abdel Hakim Belhadj
told a seminar at Tripoli university.
At Tripoli Towers, one of the capital's main office blocks,
the bulk of businesses operating are Libyan. The few foreign airlines that fly
into Libya have reopened their doors, but corridors are quiet.
At a nearby block of offices, the lack of foreigners is also
evident. Outside a Libyan man carried his shopping in one hand and an AK-47
assault rifle in the other.
"This place used to be buzzing," said a Western
security adviser. "Now the main thing you notice is the lack of
expats."
Foreign faces can be seen in hotel lobbies but their visits
are fleeting for now. "There seem to be more security guys here than
actual businessmen," a second security contractor joked.
Neither contractor expected a significant return of
foreigners before the new year at the earliest. "Moving their families
back will take even longer," one said.
Jack Mullan, director of risk consultancy Morelia
Investments, said clashes between rival militias had deterred foreign
businesses from rushing back to Libya.
Last week, heavy fighting between local armed groups killed several people on the outskirts of Tripoli.
British airline bmi has cancelled plans to resume direct
flights from London to Tripoli this month, and said on Friday there was no firm
date for restarting the service.
"The poor security environment would have to improve
before investors return. The current militia infighting would have to be
resolved to soothe many investors' concerns. Otherwise many Fortune 500
companies will not return to Libya," said Mullan, who also cited an
unpredictable regulatory environment.
'Huge opportunities'
Yet with the civil war over and a government in the making,
foreign executives are weighing the opportunities against the risks in an oil
and gas-producing nation with the resources to pay for urgent reconstruction
and healthcare needs.
Several Western nations have sent trade delegations, but no
big winners have emerged yet in the race for contracts.
"The government has to be named, there needs to be
structure before business can be done," a diplomatic source said.
Tarek Alwan, managing director of London-based consulting
firm SOC Libya, said he had been approached by numerous companies seeking
guidance on how to enter the Libyan market.
"We have noticed a greater degree of demand to enter
the Libyan market. There are huge opportunities in Libya in construction,
infrastructure, IT, tourism," he said.
"My advice is that it is still a bit too early to do
business in Libya. My advice is that they should be doing their homework and
preparations."
One company that was quick to make a move was Britain's
Heritage Oil which spent $19.5m buying a controlling stake in Benghazi-based
Sahara Oil Services in October, in a deal that was denied by Libya's National Oil
Company.
But the company's chief financial officer this week shrugged
off the NOC's denials, saying the company had had positive discussions with the
NOC.
NTC officials have said existing contracts with foreign
firms would be honoured, although those found to have been awarded in a corrupt
way might be reviewed.
But major new concessions are unlikely to be awarded until
the incoming transitional government has given way to an elected
administration, scheduled to take place in eight months.
In the meantime, restocking offices, finding new staff to
replace foreigners who fled, and in some cases getting striking workers back to
work is key.
Workers at Libyan oil producer Waha Oil, which pumped around
a quarter of pre-war output, downed tools for weeks until their demands for a
new chairperson were met.
"Let's try to get things started," Libyan
businessman Amr Azzabi said, "And then make changes as we go along."