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Johannesburg - Growth in South Africa’s retail sales slowed
to 3.9% on an annual basis at constant prices in January from 8.7% in
December, Statistics South Africa said on Wednesday.
On a monthly basis sales were at down 0.6% in January and
were up 6.9% in the three months to January compared with the same period a
year ago, also at constant prices.
Razia Khan, head of Africa research at Standard Chartered,
said the figure was surprisingly weak "after the extraordinary (and unexpected)
strength that we saw in December".
“The overall trend of 6.9% year-on-year on a smoothed three-month basis isn’t too bad. But clearly we’re not about to be surprised by the
strength of overall demand, and December’s print, still unchanged at 8.7%
year-on-year is beginning to look like more of an aberration.
“A month-on-month deceleration in January is always the
norm. December - in the runup to Christmas and the holidays - is the strongest
month by far for retail sales."
Retails sales growth averaged 6.1% last year compared with
5.1% in 2010, creeping up in the last half of 2011.
Analysts expect low interest rates to continue to support
sales growth in 2012. The central bank has put interest rates at three-decade lows
of 5.5% to help boost economic growth.
The consumption components of gross domestic product (GDP) are expected to continue
being the primary drivers of growth. Consumer spending boosted economic growth
in the third quarter of 2011, with GDP growth rising to 1.4% in Q3 as
demand-related sectors grew. Fourth-quarter GDP data is due at the end of the
month.
However, about a quarter of the labour force in South Africa is without work and this may hamper sales growth.
