Johannesburg - The South African Reserve Bank’s monthly
leading business cycle indicator rose by 0.8% to 130.4 in July compared with
June, boosted in part by an improvement in the number of residential building
plans passed, a survey showed on Tuesday.
The Reserve Bank said the composite leading business cycle
indicator increased by 0.8% in July 2012 compared with the preceding month.
Six of the 11 component time series that were available for
July increased‚ while five decreased‚ the Reserve Bank reported.
The country's seasonally adjusted leading economic indicator
provides a guideline for economic growth for at least six months ahead. The
latest reading takes the indicator to an index level of 130.4 in July‚ compared
with 129.4 in June.
The largest positive contributions in July came from an
improvement in the number of residential building plans passed‚ as well as an
increase in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply.
The major negative contributions to the movement in the
leading indicator in July came from a narrowing of the interest rate spread‚ as
well as a decline in the export commodity price index.
The composite coincident business cycle indicator increased
by 0.9% on a month-on-month (m/m) basis in June and was up 5.9% y/y‚ from a
5.0% y/y increase in May.
The composite lagging business cycle indicator increased by
0.2% m/m in June. It was 0.3% up y/y in June from a 0.5% y/y increase in May.
The Sarb uses more than 200 economic time series to
determine the turning points of the SA business cycle. Using these indicators‚
the leading‚ coincident and lagging composite business cycle indices are
produced‚ indicating the direction of the change in economic activity rather
than the level of economic activity.
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