Johannesburg - The green shoots of global recovery
are aiding South Africa's economy as trade data released on Monday shows that
exports to Europe lifted 14% in July from June.
European exports had dipped by 2% in May and lifted only 2% in June and
have been languishing behind increases to Asia, America and Africa.
However, the data on Monday reports an increase to R13.804bn,
keeping Europe in a comfortable second place in the export stakes behind Asia,
which bought R14.588bn in goods from SA in July. The Asian purchases
were up 3% from June.
However, the import data also shows a quid pro quo with Europe as SA
brought in R16.351bn in July - a 22% increase from June. This is also the
case with Asia, where R19.164bn was imported from R17.882bn in
June.
Africa continues to show growth as it bought R7.870bn from South
Africa - a 10% increase on the month. SA only imports R2.544bn from
Africa.
The data shows that South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R446.758m for its trade with non-Southern African Customs Union trading
partners in July after the R3.221bn surplus of June, according to
Customs and Excise figures released on Monday.
A R430m deficit was expected, a survey by I-Net Bridge had
found, with forecasts varying from a two billion rand deficit to a R1.5bn surplus.
A record R17.380bn deficit was struck in January this year from a
previous worst in October 2007 of R14.7bn.
But the improvement into surplus territory is not totally surprising as
South Africa's bulk export volumes surged 36.82% year-on-year (y/y) in July
from the 3.64% dip in June, data supplied by the National Ports Authority of
South Africa shows.
Exports increased 11.38% month-on-month (m/m) from 18.64% in June.
The y/y increase in 2008 was 2.88% compared with only a 0.7% rise for all
of 2007, while the year-to-date print is currently at +3.19% from -1.98% in
June.
Although January total foreign trade export data showed a dramatic drop of
25.3% m/m, ushering in a record trade deficit of R17.4bn, export
improvements have helped usher in surprise trade surpluses this year.
Trade in South Africa has picked up markedly over the past decade. In 1998
exports only added up to R144.9bn and they ended 2008 at a very
healthy R663.099bn by comparison, although an overall deficit of R64.5bn was seen.
Let's hope these green shoots sprout and continue to aid SA's economic
recovery. Granted, exports and imports are down dramatically on the year due to
the recession, but the balance of trade is improving as a result.
- I-Net Bridge