Johannesburg - Economists believe SA could be out of a recession already, although there are no figures available yet to back this up.
Most economists base a recession on the premise of two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth, seasonally adjusted and annualised.
After negative figures in the last quarter of 2008 and the first two quarters this year, chances are that third-quarter figures may show positive - albeit marginal - growth.
"I do think we're out of a recession already," said Citigroup chief economist Jean Francois Mercier.
Efficient group economist Dawie Roodt concurred, saying it has to be kept in mind that GDP figures are always old. "We don't yet have data for the third quarter, but we are already in the fourth quarter," he said.
"I think third-quarter data will be pretty much flat, but the last quarter of the year should post a smallish positive."
Mercier said his forecasts show third-quarter GDP gaining a moderate 0.5% quarter-on-quarter annualised growth, with a further 2% annualised quarter-on-quarter growth in the fourth quarter.
However, Vunani Securities chief economist Johan Rossouw said there is "still considerable risk" that the third quarter did not render positive growth.
Mercier said improvements in SA's two biggest sectors - manufacturing and retail - could have contributed positively to economic growth in the third quarter.
Even if growth from July to September remained negative, Macquarie's Gina Schoeman said it will only be marginally so. "It will at least serve as confirmation that the domestic recovery is on track," she said.
She said that with a full set of monthly growth indicators for July (and in some cases, August) to play with, Macquarie sees third-quarter GDP growth of about 0.4% quarter-on-quarter.
She said sectors in the economy which make up 44% of GPD are "likely to contribute positively" to third-quarter numbers, based on their respective monthly indicators. Some of these industries include manufacturing, mining, construction and government services.
On the other hand, two sectors accounting for 35% of GDP will contribute negatively to overall economic growth in the third quarter. The first industry is wholesale, retail trade, hotels and restaurants, while the second is finance, real estate and business services.
- Fin24.com