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Rand weakens on 'bad' GDP data

May 26 2009 12:28

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Johannesburg - The rand weakened a fraction at noon on Tuesday, after GDP figures came in lower than market expectations.

At 11:55 the rand was bid at R8.3837 to the dollar from an overnight close of R8.2356. It was bid at R11.6421 to the euro from a previous R11.5281 and at R13.2663 against sterling from R13.1155.

The euro was bid at $1.3888 from $1.4011 overnight.

South Africa's real gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices on a quarter-on-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted annualised (saa) basis dropped by -6.4% in the first quarter of 2009 from -1.8% in the fourth quarter 2008 and ushers in the first recession in 17 years, Statistics South Africa data showed on Tuesday.

A local trader said: "The rand weakened about a half a percent on rather bad GDP numbers. However, historically we don't usually see to much movement from the rand on these numbers and we expect to maintain R8.25 to R8.40 levels.

"We may see some more selling closer to the interest rate announcement, but generally the market is quite thin, with very few drivers at the moment. The rand is still liking its current range," the trader said.

The Dow Jones newswires reported that North Korea is raising risk aversion and helping the dollar higher in Europe on Tuesday, while the euro is being undermined by renewed worries about German bank exposure to toxic debt.

Although the dollar is experiencing some respite from recent heavy losses, analysts warn that the US currency could still come under pressure again if US Treasury auctions this week in any way indicate that international appetite for US assets is waning.

Focus on North Korea

For the moment, though, North Korea appears to be the main issue in the market. The launch of an underground nuclear test on Monday initially had little market impact as both the UK and the US were closed for holidays.

But as traders returned to the desks in London on Tuesday they were confronted with news that Pyongyang plans further short-term missile tests in coming days. There are already reports circulating in South Korea that its northern neighbour tested two short-range missiles off its east coast earlier on Tuesday.

The depressing effect this had on financial markets was evident in Asia, with the Nikkei losing 0.4% on the day. European stocks were also opening lower with some markets posting losses of nearly 1.5%.

The euro, which often loses out at time of higher risk aversion, was also being hurt by a weak German Ifo business sentiment survey on Monday and then a warning from Jochen Sanio, the head of German banking regulator BaFin, that banks remain at risk from massive writedowns on toxic debt.

The market's focus is now expected to turn to the series of US Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday designed to raise about $101bn.

There is widespread concern that talk of a downgrade to the US triple-A debt rating will make the auctions less attractive.

"Low subscription rates might be judged as a sign that investor confidence in US bonds has been affected, which would put additional pressure on the dollar," said the currency strategy team at Commerzbank.

By 09:30 GMT, the dollar had ticked higher to ¥95.00 from ¥94.77 late on Monday in North America, according to EBS.

The euro is down at $1.3885 from $1.4017 and at ¥131.97 from ¥132.83.

The dollar rose sharply to CHF1.0914 from CHF1.0829, while the pound fell to $1.5782 from $1.5896.

The rise in risk aversion hit Eastern European currencies, with the euro rising to HUF283.20 from HUF280.38. It was also up at PLN4.4210 from PLN4.4126 and at CZK26.734 from CZK26.680.

- I-Net Bridge

 
 
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