Tokyo - Japan's economy shrank much more than expected in
the first quarter and slipped into recession after the triple blow of the March
earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis hit business and consumer spending and
tore apart supply chains.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) expects the economy to resume
growing in the second half of the year, but some economists say the
surprisingly grim gross domestic product (GDP) figures in the first quarter increase
the risk that the pace of recovery will be slower than anticipated.
Manufacturers are moving to repair supply chains, but there are fears of power shortages
in the summer and an ongoing nuclear crisis poses risks, economists say.
The negative surprise came as inventories fell and imports
jumped following losses in factory output. Still, economists expect the BOJ to
keep monetary policy steady when it ends a two-day meeting on Friday, while
declaring readiness to ease further if the quake's impact proves more lasting
than anticipated.
Gross domestic product fell 0.9% in January-March, nearly
double the 0.5% forecast by analysts, translating into an annualised
3.7% decline compared with a 2.0% forecast, government data showed on Thursday.
The economy shrank a revised 0.8% in the fourth quarter of
last year, so a second consecutive quarter of contraction puts Japan in recession.
Analysts also project the economy will shrink again in April-June as supply
bottlenecks triggered by the March catastrophe continue to weigh on output and
exports.
Most economists still see growth resuming in the second half
of the year as supplies are gradually restored and reconstruction spending
kicks in, though there are still risks to such a scenario, including the
possible power shortages.
Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano sought to reinforce that
view, saying the economy was going through a temporary rough patch.
"The economy has the strength to bounce back,"
Yosano told a news conference after the data release, saying the economy should
grow nearly 1% in the current fiscal year to March 2012.
Yosano also sided with the central bank, which said it had
done enough to support the economy when it eased policy just days after the
quake, doubled its asset-buying scheme and pumped record amounts of cash into
the banking system.
"The Bank of Japan is taking utmost measures allowed
under the BOJ law. I have nothing to request from them," Yosano said.
Demand still there
Yosano stressed that in contrast with the deep and severe
recession during the global financial crisis, the post-quake slump in output
was caused by supply concerns and there was still demand for Japanese goods and
services.
Currency and government bond markets showed little reaction
to Thursday's data as the negative surprise did not shift investors'
expectations.
Economists said, however, that the data highlighted how difficult it will be for the world's third-largest economy to recover from a tsunami so powerful that it turned entire villages into piles of tinder and left large fishing vessels strewn atop buildings like children's toys.
The 0.9% contraction in the first quarter of this year was
the largest since a record 4.9% plunge in the first quarter of 2009 as the
financial crisis raged. It will be a challenge for the economy to return to
where it was before the natural disaster, with many economists predicting only
a sluggish and gradual recovery later this year.
"The effect of the disaster was very significant and it
will take a long time to get back to previous levels," said Yoshikiyo
Shimamine, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute.
Shimamine said growth should resume in July-September, but
there was a risk any recovery could come even later, though there was no need
for further monetary easing.
"The Bank of Japan has done what it needs to do in
terms of emergency action, so I don't think these figures will prompt any
further action."
Some economists said, however, the initial damage to the
economy was so severe that it might still need extra help.
"The size of the downturn highlights the need for much
more fiscal and monetary support than has been forthcoming," said George
Worthington, chief Asia-Pacific economist with IFR Markets in Sydney.
Among the biggest damper to growth was inventories, which
shaved 0.5 percentage point from GDP, the largest negative contribution since
the second quarter of last year.
Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of the
economy, also fell 0.6%, hit by a slump in automobile sales and worsening of
sentiment.
Corporate capital spending fell 0.9% against a market
forecast of a 1.2% decline.
Separate data showed capacity utilisation in March fell
21.5% in March, declining at a record pace, as the quake crippled manufacturing
activity.
The annual GDP deflator was minus 1.9% in the first quarter,
larger than minus 1.6% for the fourth quarter, suggesting the incredible loss
of output wasn't enough to narrow the gap between supply and demand.
Looking beyond the first quarter, recent data supports the
central bank's base scenario of a gradual recovery.
Businesses polled by Reuters in May were markedly less
pessimistic than in April, when sentiment plunged after the quake, while
official data showed earlier this week manufacturers expecting more orders to
keep coming in after a surprising rise in March.
Carmakers, among the hardest-hit by the disaster because of
their reliance on elaborate supplier networks, are making progress in restoring
production.
Honda Motor said this week the recovery in parts supplies
was speeding up, while Nissan Motor said it was aiming to bring production back
to pre-quake levels ahead of its October target.