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AFTER only six day of nuptials without the marriage contract ever being signed, the divorce between the DA and Dr Mamphela Ramphele has now been confirmed.
The failure of both the DA and Ramphele to find common cause is likely to impact upon both parties in different ways. A number of outcomes will now influence the initial phases of Election 2014.
• The momentum (however undefined) that was present following the important announcement of Ramphele as the DA’s ‘presidential’ candidate now swings back from the official opposition to both the ANC and perhaps other smaller players like the Economic Freedom Front.
The DA had – until the Ramphele announcement – a rather lacklustre beginning to their campaign and while Ramphele was never going to reel in the many millions of votes the DA might have hoped for, she did bring an admired history and political pedigree along with a perception of possible growth to the party.
• In addition, both the DA and Agang SA have spent precious media time at each other’s throats and have lost the critical anti-ANC initiative that is so important. It will take time, resources and skills to restore this.
• The re-fragmentation of two political parties that were largely close to each other in policy or ideological terms serves once again to dissipate opposition strength.
Contrary to some analysts' belief that the parts are of more use than the whole, a stronger, more united opposition is constantly a demand from voters and as such would at least galvanise most of the party faithful and some undecided voters to choose a larger, more powerful player rather than weakened sub-entities.
• A relatively acrimonious parting of the ways plays directly into the hands of the ANC. This could not be a better gift for the ruling party who themselves had a pretty good election manifesto launch and are likely to exploit every aspect of the divorce. The racial overtones so prevalent in the Ramphele fiasco will be used by the ruling party to re-open and inflame the ever-present Achilles' heel of the DA.
• On a personal level, Helen Zille promoted and motivated the partnership that now - by her own honest admission - was a risk that did not pay off. As a result, she will suffer the collateral damage to her leadership. No doubt, the strategic planning and implementation of the Ramphele candidacy from the DA’s side simply did not pass muster.
Call it an error of judgement or a simple failure to logically put in place a series of basic but critical criteria prior to the announcement (such as ensuring Ramphele had substantial buy-in from her structures and signing a DA membership card); both Zille and the broader DA team entrusted with the Ramphele negotiations have opened themselves to potentially damaging ridicule at the most important time for any political party. Ironically, the DA’s next leadership tier of Mmusi Maimane and Lindiwe Mazibuko is the least tarnished.
• For Ramphele, the lifeline extended to her by Zille is now largely squandered. And, almost like the Marthinus van Schalkwyk of old, her flip-flopping is likely to taint her for years to come. Clearly she failed to rally her troops and barely even respected them enough to take them into her confidence over the proposed move.
When push came to shove, she allowed her own supporters to lead her away from the sitting gift of a much more prominent and credible role in the parliament of 2014 and beyond. With her aspirations critically diminished, she resumes her role on the fringes of South African politics and will find her mounting problems of poor membership numbers and even more problematic finances an ongoing source of strain.
Above all else, the strange parallel universe she seemed to walk in with regards to wanting to be a dual presidential candidate on both the DA’s and Agang’s list smacks of political naïveté.
In addition, despite the personal failures and strategic blunders, the realpolitik of these events will probably seem less dramatic.
• Ultimately, Zille goes back to the DA who should – if their 2011 local election results hold up - attain around 25% of the national vote. For Ramphele, she will be lucky to get near 2% - if that.
• As the larger party with both funds and media reach, the DA is likely to recover the fastest from this bruising encounter to run a decent campaign.
• For most DA voters, they have nowhere else to go and certainly won’t now be tempted by Agang SA. And, while the chattering classes love to analyse and find fault, their academic obsession with this debacle might be just that. At the polls, they will continue to support the DA.
• But, for the DA’s new target market, the party will find it tough going. It was never going to be an easy sell with Ramphele and it will be no better without her. It will have to reset or reboot this aspect of its campaign to offset the tide of ANC spin coming its way as well as more populist and vocal challengers in the field, lest it face support stagnation.
• With floundering attempts at opposition realignment between two individuals who really do belong together – academically and ideologically at least – realignment will take longer.
And it is more likely to be driven by internal ANC schisms and a frustrated socialist Left than by the current state of opposition in the country and its (in)ability to win over swathes of new support.
Just as much as Ramphele was never the game-changer that the DA said she was only last week, neither is her exit.
- Fin24
*Daniel Silke is director of the Political Futures Consultancy and is a noted keynote speaker and commentator. Views expressed are his own. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielSilke or visit his website.
The failure of both the DA and Ramphele to find common cause is likely to impact upon both parties in different ways. A number of outcomes will now influence the initial phases of Election 2014.
• The momentum (however undefined) that was present following the important announcement of Ramphele as the DA’s ‘presidential’ candidate now swings back from the official opposition to both the ANC and perhaps other smaller players like the Economic Freedom Front.
The DA had – until the Ramphele announcement – a rather lacklustre beginning to their campaign and while Ramphele was never going to reel in the many millions of votes the DA might have hoped for, she did bring an admired history and political pedigree along with a perception of possible growth to the party.
• In addition, both the DA and Agang SA have spent precious media time at each other’s throats and have lost the critical anti-ANC initiative that is so important. It will take time, resources and skills to restore this.
• The re-fragmentation of two political parties that were largely close to each other in policy or ideological terms serves once again to dissipate opposition strength.
Contrary to some analysts' belief that the parts are of more use than the whole, a stronger, more united opposition is constantly a demand from voters and as such would at least galvanise most of the party faithful and some undecided voters to choose a larger, more powerful player rather than weakened sub-entities.
• A relatively acrimonious parting of the ways plays directly into the hands of the ANC. This could not be a better gift for the ruling party who themselves had a pretty good election manifesto launch and are likely to exploit every aspect of the divorce. The racial overtones so prevalent in the Ramphele fiasco will be used by the ruling party to re-open and inflame the ever-present Achilles' heel of the DA.
• On a personal level, Helen Zille promoted and motivated the partnership that now - by her own honest admission - was a risk that did not pay off. As a result, she will suffer the collateral damage to her leadership. No doubt, the strategic planning and implementation of the Ramphele candidacy from the DA’s side simply did not pass muster.
Call it an error of judgement or a simple failure to logically put in place a series of basic but critical criteria prior to the announcement (such as ensuring Ramphele had substantial buy-in from her structures and signing a DA membership card); both Zille and the broader DA team entrusted with the Ramphele negotiations have opened themselves to potentially damaging ridicule at the most important time for any political party. Ironically, the DA’s next leadership tier of Mmusi Maimane and Lindiwe Mazibuko is the least tarnished.
• For Ramphele, the lifeline extended to her by Zille is now largely squandered. And, almost like the Marthinus van Schalkwyk of old, her flip-flopping is likely to taint her for years to come. Clearly she failed to rally her troops and barely even respected them enough to take them into her confidence over the proposed move.
When push came to shove, she allowed her own supporters to lead her away from the sitting gift of a much more prominent and credible role in the parliament of 2014 and beyond. With her aspirations critically diminished, she resumes her role on the fringes of South African politics and will find her mounting problems of poor membership numbers and even more problematic finances an ongoing source of strain.
Above all else, the strange parallel universe she seemed to walk in with regards to wanting to be a dual presidential candidate on both the DA’s and Agang’s list smacks of political naïveté.
In addition, despite the personal failures and strategic blunders, the realpolitik of these events will probably seem less dramatic.
• Ultimately, Zille goes back to the DA who should – if their 2011 local election results hold up - attain around 25% of the national vote. For Ramphele, she will be lucky to get near 2% - if that.
• As the larger party with both funds and media reach, the DA is likely to recover the fastest from this bruising encounter to run a decent campaign.
• For most DA voters, they have nowhere else to go and certainly won’t now be tempted by Agang SA. And, while the chattering classes love to analyse and find fault, their academic obsession with this debacle might be just that. At the polls, they will continue to support the DA.
• But, for the DA’s new target market, the party will find it tough going. It was never going to be an easy sell with Ramphele and it will be no better without her. It will have to reset or reboot this aspect of its campaign to offset the tide of ANC spin coming its way as well as more populist and vocal challengers in the field, lest it face support stagnation.
• With floundering attempts at opposition realignment between two individuals who really do belong together – academically and ideologically at least – realignment will take longer.
And it is more likely to be driven by internal ANC schisms and a frustrated socialist Left than by the current state of opposition in the country and its (in)ability to win over swathes of new support.
Just as much as Ramphele was never the game-changer that the DA said she was only last week, neither is her exit.
- Fin24
*Daniel Silke is director of the Political Futures Consultancy and is a noted keynote speaker and commentator. Views expressed are his own. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielSilke or visit his website.
