Cape Town - Over the next 10 years a shortage of nurses with degrees and diplomas could foil government’s plans to have nurses assume certain doctors’ duties under a national health insurance (NHI) scheme so as to extend healthcare to the broader population.
According to the South African Nursing Council (SANC), it had 221 817 registered nurses on its database in 2009. Of these:
- 111 299 had a diploma or degree in nursing (being referred to as registered nurses);
- 48 078 had completed two years of training; and
- 62 440 had had one year of training.
SANC’s register does not however reflect the true picture in South Africa because many nurses remain on the register although they are working overseas.
Research by the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) in 2009 confirmed that some kept their registration here while working overseas, with a view to returning one day.
Mariné Erasmus, a senior economist at economic research company Econex, said calculations based on the average 4.8% annual increase in the number of nurses over the past five years showed that over the next decade the number of nurses would increase to 291 942 by 2020. Consequently 560 nurses for every 100 000 people could be expected by that year.
This did not compare badly with most middle-income countries, which have 400 per 100 000 people, and it looks better than the anticipated shortage of doctors in the near future.
The problem would, however, be the shortage of available registered nurses with degrees or diplomas, she said.
In 2000 registered nurses comprised 54.4% of the number of active nurses in the country, but the number had declined each year to 50.2% in 2009. If this rate of decline should continue, the number would drop to 42.6% in 2015 and 37.5% by 2020.
Econex research indicates that up to 50% of the registered nurses are older than 50, which means almost half of the current group could retire in 10 to 15 years’ time.
Out of the pool of registered nurses it’s mostly registered nurses that emigrate.
This sketches a sombre picture for the supply of a quality nursing service in the country in the next few years, especially against the background of government’s plans to reform the healthcare industry.
The ANC’s latest discussion documents on the NHI confirm government’s plan for the re-assignment of duties, where nurses will increasingly have to perform doctors’ services.
This implies a huge need for registered nurses who would be best qualified to assume certain doctor’s functions, said Erasmus.
- Sake24
For business news in Afrikaans, go to www.sake24.com.
According to the South African Nursing Council (SANC), it had 221 817 registered nurses on its database in 2009. Of these:
- 111 299 had a diploma or degree in nursing (being referred to as registered nurses);
- 48 078 had completed two years of training; and
- 62 440 had had one year of training.
SANC’s register does not however reflect the true picture in South Africa because many nurses remain on the register although they are working overseas.
Research by the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) in 2009 confirmed that some kept their registration here while working overseas, with a view to returning one day.
Mariné Erasmus, a senior economist at economic research company Econex, said calculations based on the average 4.8% annual increase in the number of nurses over the past five years showed that over the next decade the number of nurses would increase to 291 942 by 2020. Consequently 560 nurses for every 100 000 people could be expected by that year.
This did not compare badly with most middle-income countries, which have 400 per 100 000 people, and it looks better than the anticipated shortage of doctors in the near future.
The problem would, however, be the shortage of available registered nurses with degrees or diplomas, she said.
In 2000 registered nurses comprised 54.4% of the number of active nurses in the country, but the number had declined each year to 50.2% in 2009. If this rate of decline should continue, the number would drop to 42.6% in 2015 and 37.5% by 2020.
Econex research indicates that up to 50% of the registered nurses are older than 50, which means almost half of the current group could retire in 10 to 15 years’ time.
Out of the pool of registered nurses it’s mostly registered nurses that emigrate.
This sketches a sombre picture for the supply of a quality nursing service in the country in the next few years, especially against the background of government’s plans to reform the healthcare industry.
The ANC’s latest discussion documents on the NHI confirm government’s plan for the re-assignment of duties, where nurses will increasingly have to perform doctors’ services.
This implies a huge need for registered nurses who would be best qualified to assume certain doctor’s functions, said Erasmus.
- Sake24
For business news in Afrikaans, go to www.sake24.com.