PERHAPS it was just the fizz in the champagne, but the new year certainly started off with a change in mood in the economic news headlines. Newspapers used words such as "optimism" and "good news" instead of the unmitigated gloom that pervaded before the silly season started.
The main reason for the early cheer is the fact that the petrol price plunges by 134c-137c/litre on Wednesday, bringing immediate relief for cash-strapped consumers.
Add to that the fact that the inflation rate is expected to be below 6% by the third quarter of this year and that interest rates will fall as a result, and suddenly those writers don't even need a glass of champagne to write such cheery headlines.
What a hangover cure all this good news is! Once the headache lifts, the following question arises: does all this mean that 2009 will be a better year than 2008?
Unfortunately, the answer to that is no. It's interesting to note that Absa, which has an optimistic inflation outlook, on Tuesday put out a note saying that it expected the economy to be in a technical recession in the first half of the year. A return to economic growth in the second half, Absa says, will bring gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the full year to only 1%.
How does a recession square with all the good news we've had lately?
I don't agree with Absa that there will be a recession, but I agree with those economists who say economic growth will be very low in the first half of 2008, and that consumers will continue to battle.
Still dragged down by debt
It's important to note that the interest rate cuts on the cards for 2009 will probably be as slow as watching paint dry. It's likely that it'll take the Reserve Bank the full year to execute at most three percentage points of interest rate cuts.
That's not even giving back the full five percentage points by which interest rates rose. Interest rates, though falling, will still be relatively high for a significant period.
Then there's the fact that consumers are heavily indebted. The portion of household income that goes to servicing debt is standing at about 12%, which is high historically speaking (disregarding the excesses of 1998). The ratio is for the whole country, including the incomes of people who don't have debt, so for some the chunk of income spent on servicing debt is even higher.
Car repossessions are taking place at the rate of knots. Consumers will probably use extra cash to reduce debt and try to hang on to their homes and cars, before setting off on a spending splurge.
There's also the danger of job losses, as companies - especially in the export sector - adjust to the global recession. Many mines have already announced that they are retrenching.
I don't want to downplay the good news that consumers have had, but it's necessary to warn against becoming too optimistic and expecting too much from consumers in the first half of this year. The hangover from last year's bad times will last for some months yet.
Election wild card
Then, of course, there are exports, which can be expected to perform poorly in an environment of weak global demand. Granted, the platinum price has recovered somewhat, but it's still hugely down on the highs reached in 2008.
The November trade figures showed a massive deficit and illustrated the negative effect lower commodities prices can have on SA's export performance. The global recession will take its toll on SA's GDP performance via our exports, despite a weaker rand.
Then there's capital expenditure (capex), or "gross fixed capital formation" as it's known in the jargon. This spending has held up surprisingly well, reflecting the public sector infrastructure spending drive. But crucial private sector capex is expected to slow down sharply this year as it responds with a lag to 2008's dire economic conditions.
This coming slowdown in capex is already evident from announcements by big companies such as Kumba and Anglo American. The latter announced a cut of more than 50% in its global capex for 2009. Weak residential building will add to the slowdown, or even overall decline, in capex.
To conclude, the economy will be weak in the first half of this year, dragging down the overall economic growth rate for the year as a whole. The pessimists who see only 1% growth will probably be wrong, but bear in mind that there is a wild card - the election.
The ANC's election manifesto may make such costly promises that SA is no longer seen internationally as a beacon of fiscal prudence. The outlook for the next few months is uncertain and bleak - despite the fact that there has been some good news.
- Fin24.com