London/Oslo - The world will again fall short of a full
climate deal this year after two past attempts, say developed countries which
want a narrower focus on forests and funds at resumed UN talks next week.
A fresh postponement will all but end hopes of a binding UN
deal to succeed the Kyoto Protocol before its present round expires at the end
of 2012, leaving a legal gap and possible makeshift arrangements for years.
A summit in Copenhagen two years ago was blown off course by
world recession and political wrangling, and hopes are now dimmed for a
conference in Durban later this year.
Developing countries want to extend Kyoto, which binds only
rich countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions until 2012. But Japan, Russia
and Canada reject that, preferring a new, wider deal in a rich-poor deadlock
which echoes world trade talks.
"In Durban it's almost impossible to see a legally
binding agreement, if we take into consideration the positions of many countries
including the United States and China," said Akira Yamada, who will head
Japan's delegation at the next round of talks at a two-week meeting in Bonn,
Germany, from June 6 to 17.
China and the United States are the world's top two carbon
emitters, but Kyoto does not bind China's soaring emissions and the United
States was the only industrialised country not to ratify the pact.
The United States has demanded "legal symmetry" in
a new deal, under which climate targets for China would have equal force to any
commitments by the rich. China says its priority must be to grow its economy to
end poverty.
Top climate officials in the European Union and the United
States have already said a full deal this year was beyond reach.
A possible compromise could see countries in Durban harden
existing voluntary emissions pledges after 2012, for example by attaching a
formal time schedule to these in a stopgap deal falling short of a new
protocol, say negotiators.
Forests and finance
Without a full deal, there was still much to agree this
year. Issues include how to raise $100bn in climate aid annually by 2020, share
low-carbon technologies, increase inspection of national action and curb
deforestation, said EU chief negotiator Artur Runge-Metzger.
Countries agreed those steps in principle at a ministerial
conference in Mexico at the end of last year. "We would like a practical,
pragmatic discussion in Bonn," said Japan's Yamada.
"There is a lot that can be done in the meantime
(without a deal)," said Elliot Diringer, vice-president of international
strategies at the Pew Centre on Global Climate Change.
Efforts are meant to help shift from fossil fuels towards
low-carbon technologies, to help avert what the UN panel of climate scientists
says will be ever more droughts, floods and rising sea levels.
But developing countries also want discussion on the most
contentious issue, an extended Kyoto Protocol, left unclear in Mexico. There
was also a stalemate at the most recent talks in Bangkok in April.
HSBC climate analyst Nick Robins said an old strategy based
on driving through binding emissions targets with carbon markets was
"broken". Instead, he expected a deal around 2014 or 2015 with extra
steps to shape a greener world economy, for example by imposing global
standards on autos efficiency.
That may build on other multilateral processes such as clean
energy meetings hosted by US Energy Secretary Steven Chu, or a UN push on
sustainable development, and see the climate talks focused on practical oversight
of public finance and targets.
Business confidence in a climate deal was low, according to
a survey of 800 institutional investors and corporate execs published by the
bank BNY Mellon this week.