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Johannesburg – Despite ongoing power supply shortages and 5 500MW being taken out of the system for maintenance this winter, there was no chance of a total blackout, acting Eskom CEO Brian Molefe said on Wednesday.
The 5 500MW of planned maintenance would be three times more than had been taken out of the system in previous winters, he said during an update on the state of the country’s power system.
Power plants were still “ageing and volatile”, the cold weather had increased demand, and maintenance had put strain on an already strained system. In addition this winter was forecast to be colder than previous winters.
“There is no prospect of a blackout in South Africa... That is out of the question,” Molefe said.
During rolling blackouts, the utility was still able to supply power to 96% of the country. Power cuts were most likely during the morning and afternoon peak periods.
“We will avoid, as far as possible, load shedding during weekdays to minimise the impact on the economy,” he said.
Diesel costs
Part of the reason the utility was applying to the National Energy Regulator of SA for a 24.7% increase in electricity prices was that it was using R1.5bn a month to buy diesel for its open-cycle gas turbines.
It wanted a further R10.9bn to buy diesel, which represented 6.4% of the proposed 24.7% increase.
Running the open-cycle gas turbines added 2 000MW to the grid and without it the country would get into Stage 2 load shedding, he said.
“If there’s no diesel then we will go into load shedding sooner and it will be more severe.”
“We think the diesel is very expensive, but the cost of not using diesel during load shedding is much bigger than the cost of power cuts to the economy.”
There was a total of 43.5 gigawatt (GW) available in the system and winter demand was about 35GW, plus 1 500MW of “operating reserves”.
This left a 7GW window for maintenance and planned and unplanned outages.
The country’s total capacity was expected to be around 46GW or 47GW when various projects, including the Medupi and Kusile power stations, were completed sometime in 2017.
Medupi’s Unit 6 was on track for commercial operation at the end of August. The power station, which was projected to cost about R105bn, was currently supplying about 800MW to the grid.
An investigation into the collapse of a coal storage silo at the Majuba power station in Mpumalanga in November 2014 had been completed. A report would be presented to the government soon. Repairs would be completed in September.
Replacing the boiler of Unit 3 of the Duvha power station, near Witbank in Mpumalanga, was expected to start in July.
Need to find the 'sweet spot'
On March 30 2014, the boiler casing ruptured, in what Molefe called an “over-pressurisation incident”. A total of 575MW was lost from the grid. It would cost between R3bn to R4bn to replace the boiler.
Asked whether there was not a contradiction between trying to keep the lights on and doing maintenance, Molefe said there was a need to find the “sweet spot” between the two.
“It’s not as if we can’t keep the lights on when we do maintenance. It’s not one or the other.”
He said he was awaiting instruction from government on if his tenure would be extended beyond July. Molefe was appointed Transnet CEO in 2011 and seconded to Eskom in April this year.
“I serve at Eskom at the pleasure of the board and the minister [of public enterprises] and I await further instruction,” he said.
