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Johannesburg - Emerging markets expert Mark Mobius has adopted an upbeat tone on the outlook for the global economy, despite headlines depicting doom and gloom on an almost daily basis.
"From a mid- to long-term perspective, I believe the global economic situation continues to look very good for a number of reasons," he said in response to an online query whether there would be a recession globally or in emerging markets.
Many emerging markets have continued to grow at a rapid pace, he said, and growth was not expected to slow down too much over the next decade, although the percentage changes could decelerate when the gross domestic product numbers get bigger.
"We believe the situation in Europe can be worked out and there will likely be considerable reform in European countries such as cuts in government spending and measures taken to stimulate business by lowering taxes and reducing bureaucratic burdens.
"We expect the same could happen in the US and Japan, as those countries and the entire developed world are learning that one way to stimulate growth is to allow business and private enterprise to grow, particularly the small- and medium-size businesses."
Although the move to these policies will likely take some time, "we already see the signs of potential change".
But to Mobius, the European debt situation does not seem as serious as the US debt crisis, both in terms of scale and the possible impact on the global economy. "As such, I believe the world's focus should really be on the US debt crisis."
"From a mid- to long-term perspective, I believe the global economic situation continues to look very good for a number of reasons," he said in response to an online query whether there would be a recession globally or in emerging markets.
Many emerging markets have continued to grow at a rapid pace, he said, and growth was not expected to slow down too much over the next decade, although the percentage changes could decelerate when the gross domestic product numbers get bigger.
"We believe the situation in Europe can be worked out and there will likely be considerable reform in European countries such as cuts in government spending and measures taken to stimulate business by lowering taxes and reducing bureaucratic burdens.
"We expect the same could happen in the US and Japan, as those countries and the entire developed world are learning that one way to stimulate growth is to allow business and private enterprise to grow, particularly the small- and medium-size businesses."
Although the move to these policies will likely take some time, "we already see the signs of potential change".
But to Mobius, the European debt situation does not seem as serious as the US debt crisis, both in terms of scale and the possible impact on the global economy. "As such, I believe the world's focus should really be on the US debt crisis."
