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SOUTH Africa’s general election in 2014 is set to be fascinating, springing a surprise at all South Africans. This is if predictions made by UK-based financial services house Nomura are anything to go by.
Nomura this week predicted the ANC will drop 10% of the vote to the Democratic Alliance (DA), Agang SA and Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).
Nomura boldly declared that votes for the ANC could slide from 65.9% to 56.2% in the 2014 election, losing the party its two-thirds majority in the process.
Nomura emerging markets analyst Peter Attard Montalto said this is because of electorates’ swelling unhappiness with low service delivery levels from the ANC.
The ruling party is aware of its not-so-rosy future and they are doing anything in their power to win a lot of votes in the next elections.
This was proven this week when Minister of Social Development Bathabile Dlamini pumped 400 food parcels into highly-contested Tlokwe in the North West Province.
So, let us expect more food parcels to be delivered throughout the country as next year’s poll date nears.
This shows that the ANC’s energy is misdirected. They should be doing all in their power to attract investment to this country to create what is most needed: jobs.
If and when they turn the economy around and create jobs for millions that are unemployed, votes will come their way effortlessly.
South Africa is not a premier destination for investment any more, largely because of the government’s indecision when it comes to many economic policy issues.
International investors’ money is going to Angola, Ghana, Kenya and Mauritius among many other African countries.
This is an anomaly because South Africa has a good track record when it comes to infrastructure and corporate governance.
The ANC should be working hard to attract investment to the country. But it seems it is too late for the ruling party to redeem itself now, and the odds are already stacked against it.
Look, if the ANC wins the elections, investors are going to leave the country in droves anyway.
Investors will view this as the continuation of political and policy indecision, which has badly affected the country’s economy in the past couple of years.
As this goes on, the danger is that the premium for keeping and possessing South African assets is going to be increased lastingly.
This would jeopardise the JSE’s benchmark All Share [JSE:J203] index, which is already not doing well compared to its peers in other parts of the continent.
The African continent has been offering some real growth prospects, as shown in the performance of their stock market indices this year.
It is understood that more than 10 exchanges on the continent have produced double-digit returns so far this year, far outstripping the performance of the JSE, the big brother bourse on the southern tip of the continent.
I can only say that if the ANC fails to regain a two-thirds majority in next year’s polls it only has itself to blame, for always saying that it cares for the poor without proving it by proper service delivery and ending rampant corruption.
I hang out with journalists, academics, corporate head honchos, high-ranking ANC members and ordinary South Africans and I can safely say the majority of these people agree the country is headed in the wrong direction. And the blame lies squarely on the ruling party.
But the opposition parties also have their own weaknesses and are failing to seize the opportunity proffered by the ANC's failings.
EFF, one of the newly-formed opposition parties, has just been joined by publicity-crazy socialite Kenny Kunene, a strategic move that will make prospective voters very unhappy.
The promising Agang SA party, led by the clear-headed struggle veteran Mamphela Ramphele, has not been visible enough since its launch.
Yes, the election will no doubt be won by the ANC next year, but South Africans are for the first time going to see the beginning of the collapse of the historic movement that has such a rich history.
- Fin24
*Mzwandile Jacks is a freelance journalist. Opinions expressed are his own.
Nomura this week predicted the ANC will drop 10% of the vote to the Democratic Alliance (DA), Agang SA and Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).
Nomura boldly declared that votes for the ANC could slide from 65.9% to 56.2% in the 2014 election, losing the party its two-thirds majority in the process.
Nomura emerging markets analyst Peter Attard Montalto said this is because of electorates’ swelling unhappiness with low service delivery levels from the ANC.
The ruling party is aware of its not-so-rosy future and they are doing anything in their power to win a lot of votes in the next elections.
This was proven this week when Minister of Social Development Bathabile Dlamini pumped 400 food parcels into highly-contested Tlokwe in the North West Province.
So, let us expect more food parcels to be delivered throughout the country as next year’s poll date nears.
This shows that the ANC’s energy is misdirected. They should be doing all in their power to attract investment to this country to create what is most needed: jobs.
If and when they turn the economy around and create jobs for millions that are unemployed, votes will come their way effortlessly.
South Africa is not a premier destination for investment any more, largely because of the government’s indecision when it comes to many economic policy issues.
International investors’ money is going to Angola, Ghana, Kenya and Mauritius among many other African countries.
This is an anomaly because South Africa has a good track record when it comes to infrastructure and corporate governance.
The ANC should be working hard to attract investment to the country. But it seems it is too late for the ruling party to redeem itself now, and the odds are already stacked against it.
Look, if the ANC wins the elections, investors are going to leave the country in droves anyway.
Investors will view this as the continuation of political and policy indecision, which has badly affected the country’s economy in the past couple of years.
As this goes on, the danger is that the premium for keeping and possessing South African assets is going to be increased lastingly.
This would jeopardise the JSE’s benchmark All Share [JSE:J203] index, which is already not doing well compared to its peers in other parts of the continent.
The African continent has been offering some real growth prospects, as shown in the performance of their stock market indices this year.
It is understood that more than 10 exchanges on the continent have produced double-digit returns so far this year, far outstripping the performance of the JSE, the big brother bourse on the southern tip of the continent.
I can only say that if the ANC fails to regain a two-thirds majority in next year’s polls it only has itself to blame, for always saying that it cares for the poor without proving it by proper service delivery and ending rampant corruption.
I hang out with journalists, academics, corporate head honchos, high-ranking ANC members and ordinary South Africans and I can safely say the majority of these people agree the country is headed in the wrong direction. And the blame lies squarely on the ruling party.
But the opposition parties also have their own weaknesses and are failing to seize the opportunity proffered by the ANC's failings.
EFF, one of the newly-formed opposition parties, has just been joined by publicity-crazy socialite Kenny Kunene, a strategic move that will make prospective voters very unhappy.
The promising Agang SA party, led by the clear-headed struggle veteran Mamphela Ramphele, has not been visible enough since its launch.
Yes, the election will no doubt be won by the ANC next year, but South Africans are for the first time going to see the beginning of the collapse of the historic movement that has such a rich history.
- Fin24
*Mzwandile Jacks is a freelance journalist. Opinions expressed are his own.
