Marcus: World close to Lehman-type moment

Johannesburg - The global economy is close to another "Lehman-type" event, and South Africa needs to cushion itself by reducing its dependence on European export markets, South African Reserve Bank Governor Gill Marcus said on Wednesday.

The rand lost 22% against the dollar in the first three weeks of September as investors worried about Europe's deepening debt crisis ditched emerging market assets.

In an article in the Financial Mail magazine, Marcus said such a rapid decline bore similarities to the fallout from the collapse of Lehman Brothers in late 2008.

"The response of the markets to the glaring lack of global leadership and political will to deal with the crisis in a coherent way is indicative of how perilously close we are to another ’Lehman-type’ moment, but without the ammunition of 2008," she wrote.

The rand, a deeply traded emerging market currency, hit a 28-month low of R8.4950 on Thursday but has since bounced back to R7.8450, and should recover further given that the difference between emerging and developed world interest rates are here to stay, Marcus said.

"In all likelihood, these exchange rate moves represent an overshoot and may retrace somewhat when risk aversion moderates, given that the underlying reasons for flows to emerging markets in the first place - abnormally low interest rates in the advanced economies - are likely to persist."

South Africa's Reserve Bank last week left interest rates unchanged at three-decade lows, balancing concerns about rising inflation pressures with those for stuttering growth in Africa's largest economy, which relies heavily on exports to Europe.

"With growth in the US and Europe likely to remain anaemic for some time, South Africa would do well to diversify its trade ties ... and reduce its dependence on European export markets," Marcus said.