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Johannesburg - Finance Minister Trevor Manuel's predictions of 4% economic growth are still very possible, says Rian le Roux, chief economist of Old Mutual.
"I expect we will achieve a little over 3% this year, but when you look at foreign trade it is not impossible we will get to 4%," said Le Roux.
"The Minister may still be correct."
Le Roux notes that import volume growth is declining and should eventually start improving the current account numbers "a little bit".
"Trade numbers may start to look a little better," he added. Le Roux says, though, that the macro-economic environment remains "highly uncertain".
On a positive note, he says that SA is well advanced in required local cyclical adjustments, which may be a good thing for the rand.
"The peak in inflation and interest rates is suddenly much clearer, although external shocks are still a risk," he added.
"Rate relief is likely the next move, but is likely still some time off," he said.
Le Roux concluded that the public sector is set to spend R520bn over the next three years, and this will help support growth to an extent.
- I-Net Bridge