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Manuel confident of 4% growth

Feb 21 2008 18:15

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Cape Town - South Africa's Treasury is confident of its forecast of 4% economic growth for 2008, Finance Minister Trevor Manuel said on Thursday, dismissing concerns the prediction was too optimistic.

Manuel's 2008 budget, released on Wednesday, predicted growth would ease from 5% this year due to slowdown in the United States, higher domestic interest rates and a crippling energy crisis.

The number was down on the 4.5% forecast in October last year but critics have suggested it may be too high given the expected impact from energy problems that have knocked production at factories and mines.

Asked if the forecast was not overly optimistic, Manuel said on a business television show: "We are very confident to say 4 percent...I think we are standing on pretty solid ground."

The revision took into account slower world growth and the power problems, with growth expected to be buoyed by strong commodity prices that would continue to support resource companies.

The Treasury said on Wednesday the power crisis would likely take off about 0.6% from growth in 2008, and predicted expansion to rebound to 4.6% by 2010.

However, this was still down on the average 5.1% growth of the past four years and the near three-decade record of 5.4% achieved in 2006.

Eskom 'won't be thrown to the wolves'

South African electricity utility Eskom is struggling to meet demand for energy in Africa's biggest economy, resulting in costly outages to shield the grid.

Production was halted at the world's biggest platinum and key gold mines for five days last month after the company warned it could not guarantee supply.

The crisis has knocked investor confidence, sending the rand sharply lower while lifting the platinum price to record highs.

On Eskom, Manuel reiterated negotiations would continue on how the planned government support for the utility would work, but said Eskom would receive the backing it needed to spend on infrastructure and boost capacity, and did not rule out a government guarantee.

"We are not going to throw them to the wolves," he said.

The budget earmarked R60bn over five years to help the company pay for planned R343bn in spending to boost the grid. The balance would come from higher tariffs, Eskom's own balance sheet and new debt.

The Treasury money would come directly from the budget with R20bn likely to flow in the next three years.

- Reuters

 
 
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