HISTORY, as the aphorism goes, has a strange way of gilding crucial moments with the edge of prophecy. That moment probably arrived when an amorphous structure - the needlessly controversial National Planning Commission (NPC) - was mooted by Trevor Manuel to corral an otherwise disparate constituency of interests under some or other long-term economic objective.
After much hand-wringing in the tripartite alliance, it now seems the very personality functional to the structure and constitution of the NPC is on his way out. An alternative planning approach to Manuel's Green Paper will be discussed at a meeting of the tripartite alliance this weekend.
What might that alternative be and why?
If the ANC document - rumoured to contain proposals for either President Jacob Zuma or his deputy Kgalema Motlanthe to head a restructured commission - is anything to go by, the implications extend beyond a mere reshuffle of roles.
First, consider the whole point of the NPC: Manuel being what he is, Zuma - flushed with self-declared victory when the Green Paper was tabled before parliament - lost no time claiming the NPC (headed by Manuel) marked "a strategic, historic victory" for government.
That may have been true, but hardly to the point. At that moment, Zuma's feat was to have let a voice of reason in a left-dominated ANC executive committee wrest the high ground from trade federation Cosatu and the SACP.
Until now, it seemed less significant that just as the NPC would have been a potent force to maintain sound economic policies under Manuel's stewardship, it could become an equally destructive force if led by the left.
That's the calculus of power - and the all-important point. The plain fact is that Manuel was the personification of the original conception of the NPC.
Arming labour's lackeys
Despite his own dismissal of a cult of personality around the NPC debacle, Manuel knows the NPC was designed on the pretence that policy coordination was its primary purpose. But for the untutored, structures are not abstract creations; they reflect personalities and their ideological predilections.
To be sure, the NPC's internal logic was simple: populate economic ministerial posts with leftwingers to appease socialists in the ANC, but deal the mantle of policy-making to an imperial minister (Manuel) with a firm handle on sound economics.
Clever, indeed. However, what Manuel (and Zuma) did not calculate is whether a splendid idea would turn on its head if usurped by the left.
In other words, with Manuel reduced to a ceremonial figure in the NPC, might the initial intent of the structure be heavily compromised? Crudely, should we be speaking the language of central planning in what is essentially a quasi-socialist cabinet?
To answer those questions is to invite the enquiry: will Manuel's presumed successor be any wiser? On one level, it could be reasoned Zuma lacks impeccable administrative (witness his own personal financial mismanagement) and financial credentials, so might be expected to compound the mess.
On the other hand, only a compromise candidate (such as Zuma) has the authority to blunt the left's sting.
But it's not just a matter of avoiding a needless provocation and placating the left any more. There should now be near unanimity among all moderates and democrats that what was quite patently a golden opportunity to maintain the best of Mbeki-era economic policies could turn out to be the biggest blunder yet.
For if a resolution of the policy impasse Zuma finds himself in rested on the creation of an omnipotent structure, then it is here - in the insertion of left-leaning ministers into powerful positions within a restructured NPC - that the greatest danger lies for policy continuity.
Already, the ANC policy document has hinted that rather than vesting policy-making in Manuel, line function ministers would assume that role.
And that means arming labour's lackeys - Economic Development Minister Ebrahim Patel (Cosatu) and Trade Industry Minister Rob Davies (SACP) - with discretionary power to foist labour's lunacy.
The prophecy has become the crucial moment...
- Fin24.com