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THERE are a few variations on the Georg W F Hegel quote “What experience and history teach is this - that nations and governments have never learned anything from history, or acted upon any lessons they might have drawn from it.”
Rather than looking to the year ahead, I first want to wander into the past and the impact a single man can have on a country. I feel this particularly relevant for two reasons: 1. This year we celebrate South Africa’s 20-year democracy and 2. we have our general elections.
Never before has it been so important to make an informed decision.
Between 1994 and 2007, South Africa recorded an average GDP growth rate of 3.6% and brought inflation down to an average of 6.3%. Goldman Sachs quotes this as a “golden period” of economic performance. This golden period also saw government debt drop to 28% from the pre-1994 highs of 50%.
Evidently the change in national government benefited the country economically, and the evidence of this is not unique to South Africa. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has made several economic changes that are proving so effective his policies have been dubbed “Abenomics”.
But in Japan deflationary pressure has persisted for well over a decade, and this persistent deflation resulted in the country’s wage level falling at an average annual rate of 0.8%. In 1997, wage earners in Japan received a gross total of ¥279trn and this total fell to ¥244.7trn in 2012.
In other words, Japan’s wage earners lost ¥34.3trn in this period – an amount larger than the annual GDP of Denmark, Malaysia or Singapore.
I do not want to focus on the economic achievements of Abenomics, but rather something that everyone can understand – morale. Since Abenomics was introduced in December 2012, a fundamental shift has occurred, a shift in the collective psyche of Japan: the mindset of resignation has given way to one of limitless possibility.
It seems to me that South Africans too have a mindset of resignation, or perhaps one of defeat. Under apartheid, there was discrimination and under the current ANC government, we have unfulfilled promises. So where does the voter turn to; who do we vote for this year?
I think the answer to the above question is straightforward because one man truly can make a difference. Through voting Shinzo Abe and the Liberal Democratic Party into power, the Japanese people changed the fate of their country for the better, a story reminiscent of the vote that took place in 1994 locally.
Fukuyama forecast in 1992 that the end result for all countries is democracy and, to date, there has not been a successful challenge to this. According to research and World Bank data, South Africa crossed a very important threshold in 2012 – that of $6 000 GDP per capita.
The research shows that democracies above the $6 000 level have a 99% chance of sustaining their political system.
Consequently, it would seem that autocracy need not be feared and so, if democracy is enshrined and assured, is it not time that we learn from our history and act upon the lessons drawn from it?
- Fin24
* Geoffrey Chapman is a guest columnist and trade policy expert at the SABS. Views expressed are his own.
Rather than looking to the year ahead, I first want to wander into the past and the impact a single man can have on a country. I feel this particularly relevant for two reasons: 1. This year we celebrate South Africa’s 20-year democracy and 2. we have our general elections.
Never before has it been so important to make an informed decision.
Between 1994 and 2007, South Africa recorded an average GDP growth rate of 3.6% and brought inflation down to an average of 6.3%. Goldman Sachs quotes this as a “golden period” of economic performance. This golden period also saw government debt drop to 28% from the pre-1994 highs of 50%.
Evidently the change in national government benefited the country economically, and the evidence of this is not unique to South Africa. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has made several economic changes that are proving so effective his policies have been dubbed “Abenomics”.
But in Japan deflationary pressure has persisted for well over a decade, and this persistent deflation resulted in the country’s wage level falling at an average annual rate of 0.8%. In 1997, wage earners in Japan received a gross total of ¥279trn and this total fell to ¥244.7trn in 2012.
In other words, Japan’s wage earners lost ¥34.3trn in this period – an amount larger than the annual GDP of Denmark, Malaysia or Singapore.
I do not want to focus on the economic achievements of Abenomics, but rather something that everyone can understand – morale. Since Abenomics was introduced in December 2012, a fundamental shift has occurred, a shift in the collective psyche of Japan: the mindset of resignation has given way to one of limitless possibility.
It seems to me that South Africans too have a mindset of resignation, or perhaps one of defeat. Under apartheid, there was discrimination and under the current ANC government, we have unfulfilled promises. So where does the voter turn to; who do we vote for this year?
I think the answer to the above question is straightforward because one man truly can make a difference. Through voting Shinzo Abe and the Liberal Democratic Party into power, the Japanese people changed the fate of their country for the better, a story reminiscent of the vote that took place in 1994 locally.
Fukuyama forecast in 1992 that the end result for all countries is democracy and, to date, there has not been a successful challenge to this. According to research and World Bank data, South Africa crossed a very important threshold in 2012 – that of $6 000 GDP per capita.
The research shows that democracies above the $6 000 level have a 99% chance of sustaining their political system.
Consequently, it would seem that autocracy need not be feared and so, if democracy is enshrined and assured, is it not time that we learn from our history and act upon the lessons drawn from it?
- Fin24
* Geoffrey Chapman is a guest columnist and trade policy expert at the SABS. Views expressed are his own.
