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Tokyo - Japan's economy shrank in the second quarter at a
faster pace than initially reported as companies held back on capital
expenditure due to worries about a rising yen and faltering global growth.
Economists say Japan is likely to resume growing in the
third quarter after three consecutive quarters of contraction, boosted by a
rapid recovery in supply chains following the March 11 earthquake, but the
outlook further ahead looks increasingly in doubt.
Other data pointing to weak business investment and a dip in
exports increasingly suggest Japan will not be able to rely much on external
demand. This could pressure the government to speed up reconstruction spending
and lean on the central bank to weaken the yen by easing policy further.
"As capital spending is unlikely to grow as strongly as
previously thought, a rebound in GDP in July-September may be smaller than
initially thought although gradual recovery is still expected," said
Yuichi Kodama, economist at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance in Tokyo.
"There are also increased chances of the yen's
appreciation in the coming month due to the Federal Reserve's expected easing
and the latest Swiss move. The BOJ may be prompted by market moves, rather than
the economy’s performance, to ease its policy."
Harsh conditions
Gross domestic product shrank a revised 0.5% in the second
quarter, bang in line with the median market forecast and compared with the
initially reported 0.3% contraction, Cabinet Office data showed on Friday.
On an annualised basis, the economy contracted 2.1%, against
a 2.2% fall expected by economists.
Capital expenditure fell a revised 0.9%, compared with an
initially reported 0.2% rise and a 1.9% fall expected by economists.
Private inventories contributed 0.1 percentage point to GDP,
less than a 0.3 percentage point contribution in preliminary data as parts
shortages eased for some firms, allowing companies to finish partially
manufactured goods, a government official said.
In another encouraging sign, government consumption and
investment made a slightly positive contribution to GDP due to spending and
investment in tsunami-hit areas on temporary housing and other items, the
official said.
"From July, supply chains have recovered and the
government has judged that the economy is picking up," Economics Minister
Motohisa Furukawa told reporters.
"But given worries about global economic risks and
fluctuations in the foreign exchange and stock markets, the environment surrounding
the Japanese economy is increasingly severe."
Separate data showed Japanese consumer confidence was steady
in August after rising in the previous three months, suggesting the post-quake
rebound in sentiment may have ground to a halt.
The revised GDP data follows a Ministry of Finance survey
released last week that showed capital expenditure unexpectedly fell in the
second quarter from a year earlier due to waning global demand.
While economists expect Japan to exit recession triggered by
the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, some have started questioning whether
overseas demand and reconstruction spending will carry the economy further.
The Bank of Japan could come under increased pressure to ease monetary policy in coming months as the yen remains stubbornly high against the dollar, threatening to harm exports.
