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“IT'S THE ECONOMY, stupid!” This was the famous advice given by US election strategist James Carville in 1992 to the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, Bill Clinton.
Wise words, they were, for Clinton won two elections handsomely by concentrating on the economy, something which touches on each and every voter's life intensely.
It is not surprising, therefore, that the economy has been playing an important role in the present British general election. Although, as we shall see, there are other factors which influence voters as well.
The election is being held against the background of a resurging economy after the drawn-out crisis which started in 2008.
Last year, the economy grew by 2.8%, higher than the generally expected 2.6%. The current-account deficit in the last quarter was £25.3bn, down from the record-high of £27.7bn recorded for the previous quarter.
Per capita gross national product is now 4.8% above where it was at the last election in 2010, although it is still 1.2% below that of 2008, when the crash started.
Altogether 1.8 million new jobs were created since 2010, and the jobless rate now stands at 5.7% - considerably lower than the 11.3% recorded for the eurozone as a whole.
Inflation picked up a little (2%), after the deflation reported last year, indicating that the economy has turned a corner. And indeed, the polling organisation Gfk found that the Brits were more upbeat about the economy than any other time during the past 13 years.
But apparently it is not all about the economy, stupid. Opinion polls have been rock-steady for the past few weeks: The BBC's poll of polls show that the Conservative Party could, in spite of the economy, get only 34% of the vote, 33% for Labour, 14% for Ukip, and 8% for the Liberal Democrats.
This, of course, doesn't mean anything. In the final analysis, it is the number of seats in the House of Common that counts, not the number of votes received, which will determine the identity of the occupant of 10 Downing Street.
And here it is anybody's guess. Every expert comes to a different conclusion.
What is clear, though, is that there will be a hung parliament. The question is what kind of coalition the Brits will get.
The most likely, it seems, is a minority government either by the Tories or Labour, which will be supported on a case-by-case basis either by the LibDems and Ukip, or on the other hand by the LibDems, the Scottish National Party (SNP) and Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalists.
The LibDems are clearly hedging their bets. Nic Clegg, the LibDem leader, has declared he is willing to work with whomever is the biggest party.
It is expected that weeks of frantic wrangling will follow the election. It may even go to court. At the same time, we see an interesting phenomenon with the Scottish and Welsh nationalists.
Looking at the situation through traditional South African eyes, one may be forgiven for raising one's eyebrows at the mention of an alliance between left-leaning Labour and the fiercely nationalistic SNP and Plaid Cymru. After all, ethnic nationalists in South Africa are considered to be right-wing – vide people like Steve Hofmeyr and Dan Roodt.
Not so in the Western world. Ethnic nationalists, including those in Scotland and Wales, are generally very red when it comes to economic policy. In fact, the SNP and Plaid Cymru are economically definitely to the left of Labour.
This can be explained by the fact that the right-wing Tories are traditionally the heirs of the English (as opposed to British) imperialists who oppressed the Scots and Welsh.
In fact, some polls predict that the SNP will sweep the whole of Scotland, capturing all 59 seats and obliterating the Tories, Labour and LibDems alike. In Wales, Plaid Cymru will show considerable progress as well.
This means that Labour – on paper – will stand a better chance of scraping together enough parliamentary votes to form a government than the Tories. It also means that the colour of the next UK government will not be so much determined by the English, but by the Scots and to a lesser extent perhaps the Welsh.
For anyone familiar with British history and the repeated humiliations the English met out to the ethnic minorities, this will be the height of irony.
Comparing the Tories' and Labour's economic manifesto, one sees relatively little difference, although Labour's policies are a touch to the left of the Tories'. Both, however, want to keep the budget deficit down, neither wants to borrow more money to balance the books, and both want to stimulate the economy to reduce unemployment further.
Labour does want to raise the minimum wage somewhat.
The SNP and Plaid Cymru, on the other hand, want to increase state spending and to increase the minimum wage as well.
If they, therefore, are placed in a position to influence a Labour government's economic policies, it is to be expected that these will show a lurch to the left. By how much – that remains to be seen.
Taking everything into consideration, we are in for one of the most interesting election results in decades.
* Leopold Scholtz is an independent political analyst who lives in Europe. Views expressed are his own.
