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IEA: World must cut carbon

Paris - Global oil reserves will remain abundant for several decades despite a surge in energy demand but vulnerable supply routes and reliance on fossil fuels loom as potential risks, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.

In its World Energy Outlook 2004, the IEA predicted energy demand would rise by 59% between now and 2030 but that oil prices would average no more than $35 a barrel.

Issuing a "reference scenario" as well as an "alternative policy scenario", the agency was upbeat, with Executive Director Claude Mandil saying: "The Earth contains more than enough energy resources to meet demand for many decades to come".

"The world is not running out of oil just yet."

He nonetheless described increased vulnerability of energy supply routes and continuing heavy reliance on carbon-emitting fossil fuels as "deeply troubling".

Global economic growth for the period 2002-2030 was estimated at 3.2% per year, with China, India and other Asian countries expected to lead the pack.

Population worldwide was put at more than eight billion in 2030, up from 6.2 billion in 2002.

Oil, gas and coal would provide 85% of the energy needed for such increases, with the latter alone accounting for one-fifth, "mostly in power generation and increasingly concentrated in China and India".

Among its details, the IEA report forecast average crude oil prices would fall to $22 a barrel, "in year-2000 dollars", in 2006.

In 2010 they would begin to climb steadily, reaching $29 in 2030.

"In a High Oil Price Case, the crude oil price is assumed to average 35 dollars over the entire projection period."

Such a scenario, the IEA said, would push global oil demand down around 15% by 2030, reducing cumulative OPEC revenues in 2003-2030 by seven percent, or $750bn (585bn euros).

In general however, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries will see its worldwide market share increase from 37%two years ago to 53% in 2030, "slightly above its historical peak in 1973".

Russia was singled out as "the most important energy country" at present, but the agency said uncertainties remained regarding its role in the future.

Looking at electricity, the report said demand would double between 2002 and 2030, with most growth coming again in developing countries.

"Power generation will account for nearly half of world consumption of natural gas," although coal "will remain the world's single largest source of electricity generation" unless governments take measures to limit carbon dioxide emissions.

Nuclear power's share in electricity production is set to fall as "nearly 40% of existing nuclear plants will be retired".

Under the alternative scenario, energy efficient and environmentally friendly policies could trim overall demand by about 10%, with a drop in oil demand equivalent to the combined production of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Nigeria.

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