Publications
Partners
I'VE been enchanted by geologist Nick Norman’s recent book, Geology Off the Beaten Track (Struik Nature), which tells the story of the rocks and the ground beneath our feet.
The geology of South Africa is elegant and complicated – a fact which is underlined by Julienne du Toit’s article on dolerite and the Karoo (http://karoospace.co.za/dolerite-karoos-fracking-game-changer/).
Back when Gondwana was tearing apart to form the modern continents, the Karoo experienced a massive upwelling of molten basalt which created the dolerite of today. Dolerite signals the presence of cracks and faults that allow water to collect underground – a sign that it might be good to drill for water here.
But not, perhaps, for shale gas. Du Toit quotes Dr Ingrid Aarnes of Oslo who did her doctorate on the Karoo: “’…in theory there should be a lot of gas generated,’ she says. ‘In fact it seems that the quantities could add up to be enough to trigger global warming.
"The fate of all these gases remains unresolved. However, due to several thousand mapped pipe/chimney structures which begin in the matured zone close to the dolerite and go all the way up to the surface in the Karoo, we (my colleagues, such as Henrik Svensen, and I) infer that most of these gases were released to the atmosphere within a quite short period of time after the intrusions.’” There may be very little gas left, in other words.
Du Toit adds: “In June 2013, the US Energy Information Administration downgraded South Africa’s potential shale gas reserves from 485 trillion cubic feet (which put us fifth in the world) to 390 tcf (eighth in the world), in part because of ‘geologic complexity caused by igneous intrusions’.”
And there’s a growing scepticism about the much-touted benefits of fracking, as outlined on a USA-based website:
“The gas industry claims that fracking creates numerous jobs; however, they neglect to publicize the long-term result of widespread job losses in non-gas related sectors that are incompatible with shale gas development, such as tourism, agriculture, food and beverage, and outdoor recreation.
“An independent study concluded extractive energy-focused counties are doing worse economically compared with peer communities and are less well-prepared for growth in the future, due to a less-diversified economy, a less-educated workforce, and greater disparities in income.
“Local employment created during the initial drilling and construction stages – especially in hospitality, trucking, construction and retail – are primarily short-term, low-wage and part-time. After the bust phase, most of the remaining positions are held by out-of-state workers already employed in the extraction industry.” (http://businessesagainstfrackingny.com/business-concerns-about-fracking/)
Seems like not such a good bet for some investors, either: last year, the Telegraph reported that “Royal Dutch Shell profits dropped 60pc to $2.4bn (£1.6bn) in the second quarter after drilling of its shale oil assets in North America showed they were worth $2.1bn less than it had thought.” (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/10215535/Shell-profits-drop-on-shal...)
Also last year, the Christian Science Monitor reported that Poland, once predicted to offer the European equivalent of the USA fracking boom, had disappointed: “Estimated to have more untapped reserves than any other European Union nation, Poland was eager to replicate the boom from hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, in the United States that has helped lower energy prices and carbon emissions.
“But now the scenario is increasingly cloudy. Poland's estimates of shale have been reduced, and three major energy companies, including ExxonMobil, have recently pulled out of the country after disappointing results.” (http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2013/0724/As-Poland-s-fracking-future-turns-cloudy-so-does-Eur...)
Even the USA boom ain’t panning out as predicted. Among other things, in December 2013 energy analyst Chris Nelder noted that the Monterey Shale, which was heralded as California’s route to wealth and energy-independence is likely to produce only about a quarter to a half of the original claims (http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/the-take/monterey-shale-isnt-all-its-fracked-up-to-be/).
So forget for the moment, the environmental issues: just think about the fact that the Karoo is immensely complex geologically, that its existing industries, from agriculture to tourism, depend on a knife-edge ecology (just enough water, just enough vegetation, and an arid, pristine environment).
On top of that, factor in the uneven and unpredictable results of fracking elsewhere – high promises that as often as not disappoint.
And then ask yourself: what does government intend to do?
At the official opening of the mining investment indaba at the ICC in Cape Town, Minerals and Energy Minister Susan Shabangu said: "Government is excited about major game-changing discoveries of untapped potential for petroleum development, spanning both off-shore and on-shore, including shale gas.
"We will move ahead decisively, yet responsibly, with the exploration of shale gas," said Shabangu
She spoke about, yes, how many jobs would be created (without a word about whether these would be long-term and whether it would be locals who are employed or staff drawn from elsewhere).
She also expressed government’s willingness to listen to and act on their concerns expressed by local communities and activists from the area – ha ha! No, let’s get real. She said that there would be a campaign to visit the communities and – note the wording: “explain what will happen”.
She doesn’t express herself well, really: when news broke that eight miners were dead at Harmony’s Doornkop mine last week, she said the deaths were “regrettable” – which to me is a word you use when you have a puncture and can’t make a meeting on time.
“What WILL happen,” hmm? Well, that certainly would make me feel heard. Not. What I mostly feel right now is worried: if it doesn’t all come up gas-scented roses, who is going to pick up the mess left behind, and restore existing economies?
- Fin24
*Mandi Smallhorne is a versatile journalist and editor. Views expressed are her own.
The geology of South Africa is elegant and complicated – a fact which is underlined by Julienne du Toit’s article on dolerite and the Karoo (http://karoospace.co.za/dolerite-karoos-fracking-game-changer/).
Back when Gondwana was tearing apart to form the modern continents, the Karoo experienced a massive upwelling of molten basalt which created the dolerite of today. Dolerite signals the presence of cracks and faults that allow water to collect underground – a sign that it might be good to drill for water here.
But not, perhaps, for shale gas. Du Toit quotes Dr Ingrid Aarnes of Oslo who did her doctorate on the Karoo: “’…in theory there should be a lot of gas generated,’ she says. ‘In fact it seems that the quantities could add up to be enough to trigger global warming.
"The fate of all these gases remains unresolved. However, due to several thousand mapped pipe/chimney structures which begin in the matured zone close to the dolerite and go all the way up to the surface in the Karoo, we (my colleagues, such as Henrik Svensen, and I) infer that most of these gases were released to the atmosphere within a quite short period of time after the intrusions.’” There may be very little gas left, in other words.
Du Toit adds: “In June 2013, the US Energy Information Administration downgraded South Africa’s potential shale gas reserves from 485 trillion cubic feet (which put us fifth in the world) to 390 tcf (eighth in the world), in part because of ‘geologic complexity caused by igneous intrusions’.”
And there’s a growing scepticism about the much-touted benefits of fracking, as outlined on a USA-based website:
“The gas industry claims that fracking creates numerous jobs; however, they neglect to publicize the long-term result of widespread job losses in non-gas related sectors that are incompatible with shale gas development, such as tourism, agriculture, food and beverage, and outdoor recreation.
“An independent study concluded extractive energy-focused counties are doing worse economically compared with peer communities and are less well-prepared for growth in the future, due to a less-diversified economy, a less-educated workforce, and greater disparities in income.
“Local employment created during the initial drilling and construction stages – especially in hospitality, trucking, construction and retail – are primarily short-term, low-wage and part-time. After the bust phase, most of the remaining positions are held by out-of-state workers already employed in the extraction industry.” (http://businessesagainstfrackingny.com/business-concerns-about-fracking/)
Seems like not such a good bet for some investors, either: last year, the Telegraph reported that “Royal Dutch Shell profits dropped 60pc to $2.4bn (£1.6bn) in the second quarter after drilling of its shale oil assets in North America showed they were worth $2.1bn less than it had thought.” (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/10215535/Shell-profits-drop-on-shal...)
Also last year, the Christian Science Monitor reported that Poland, once predicted to offer the European equivalent of the USA fracking boom, had disappointed: “Estimated to have more untapped reserves than any other European Union nation, Poland was eager to replicate the boom from hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, in the United States that has helped lower energy prices and carbon emissions.
“But now the scenario is increasingly cloudy. Poland's estimates of shale have been reduced, and three major energy companies, including ExxonMobil, have recently pulled out of the country after disappointing results.” (http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2013/0724/As-Poland-s-fracking-future-turns-cloudy-so-does-Eur...)
Even the USA boom ain’t panning out as predicted. Among other things, in December 2013 energy analyst Chris Nelder noted that the Monterey Shale, which was heralded as California’s route to wealth and energy-independence is likely to produce only about a quarter to a half of the original claims (http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/the-take/monterey-shale-isnt-all-its-fracked-up-to-be/).
So forget for the moment, the environmental issues: just think about the fact that the Karoo is immensely complex geologically, that its existing industries, from agriculture to tourism, depend on a knife-edge ecology (just enough water, just enough vegetation, and an arid, pristine environment).
On top of that, factor in the uneven and unpredictable results of fracking elsewhere – high promises that as often as not disappoint.
And then ask yourself: what does government intend to do?
At the official opening of the mining investment indaba at the ICC in Cape Town, Minerals and Energy Minister Susan Shabangu said: "Government is excited about major game-changing discoveries of untapped potential for petroleum development, spanning both off-shore and on-shore, including shale gas.
"We will move ahead decisively, yet responsibly, with the exploration of shale gas," said Shabangu
She spoke about, yes, how many jobs would be created (without a word about whether these would be long-term and whether it would be locals who are employed or staff drawn from elsewhere).
She also expressed government’s willingness to listen to and act on their concerns expressed by local communities and activists from the area – ha ha! No, let’s get real. She said that there would be a campaign to visit the communities and – note the wording: “explain what will happen”.
She doesn’t express herself well, really: when news broke that eight miners were dead at Harmony’s Doornkop mine last week, she said the deaths were “regrettable” – which to me is a word you use when you have a puncture and can’t make a meeting on time.
“What WILL happen,” hmm? Well, that certainly would make me feel heard. Not. What I mostly feel right now is worried: if it doesn’t all come up gas-scented roses, who is going to pick up the mess left behind, and restore existing economies?
- Fin24
*Mandi Smallhorne is a versatile journalist and editor. Views expressed are her own.
