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'Foreign marriages' affecting JSE

Port Elizabeth - Shares started last week on a weaker note and remained under pressure right up to the close on Friday, eventually buckling under selling pressure that became evident in the market some three weeks ago.

The main contributing factor was a stronger currency, which translated to lower share prices.

Nearly 70% of listed SA companies are directly affected by the value of the rand, either being large exporters of commodities, or by their large exposure to foreign markets.

In fact, most of the larger listed companies are no longer South African - they all emigrated or married foreigners. Their new passports are their listings in London and New York.

During the past few weeks, international investors have largely been sellers of equities on the JSE and they switched back to their home countries.

Foreign investors were net sellers of SA shares for the first two weeks of November.

The JSE will only publish figures of last week's trading by foreign investors on Tuesday, but price action in the market indicates that foreigners probably were net sellers during the past week as well.

On the opposite side of the Atlantic, US markets continued to rise, ending the week on a strong footing.

They are set to continue to increase further as US investors are getting used to the idea that the Federal Reserve will start to cut back their aggressive money-printing strategy.

There was very little new news in SA to counter the effect of this switch to other markets.

A few companies published results - which could mostly be described as statisfactory in PR speech, or pretty boring in market lingo.

The week ahead

Indications are that the market will not be more exciting this week.

The Reserve Bank's stance on interest rates and the reasons for keeping rates unchanged were well known before the Monetary Policy Committee's meeting.

Most people could have guessed what the MPC discussed as well. The bank's governor, Gill Marcus, merely confirmed market opinion when she said inflation risks were discussed at length and the decision to keep rates unchanged at 40 year lows was unanimous.

The decline in share prices from recent record highs was muted and mostly expected.

More of the same is probable, or a slight bounce to keep bulls happy.

What is really needed is a nice surprise to bring a bit of excitement and force asset managers to work for their fees.
 
Very little news is expected to push the market significantly in either direction.

StatsSA will publish economic growth figures on Wednesday, which will probably show lacklustre growth.

Production price data on Thursday might show higher production inflation, due only to the last few months' data that did not yet reflect cost increases lurking in the manufacturing sector.

Omnia [JSE:OMN] and Naspers [JSE:NPN] are due to publish interim results on Monday and Tuesday.

Adcock Ingram [JSE:AIP] is worth watching due to the internastional suitor still looking around.

- Fin24

*After chasing money on the JSE for 15 years, Adriaan Kruger is now living a relaxed lifestyle in Wilderness and lectures economics part-time at Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University.

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