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Fixed investment could be 3%: Investec

Johannesburg - Forecast growth in 2011 for private sector and public corporations fixed investment will only just reach 3.0% year-on-year (y/y) if 2010 had been a year of no growth instead of contraction.

This is according to Investec Group economist Annabel Bishop.

She says that the poor spending performance of government on infrastructure is an area where the New Growth Path (NGP) can provide value.

Fixed investment by both the private sector and government took a knock during the 2008/9 recession.

Bishop says however that while the recession hit private sector fixed investment particularly hard, government has been "very tardy" in meeting fixed investment targets, further impeding service delivery and economic growth.

Private sector fixed investment is now expected to recover from its two years of contraction, at a pace in excess of GDP growth, partly due to being calculated off a negative base year.

"Now more than ever, government and parastatals must not fail or delay in spending all monies earmarked for fixed investment," Bishop says, adding that this is necessary for job creation.

On calls to weaken the rand to boost competitiveness, Investec suggests that weakening the rand would be very premature if "outstanding fundamentals" necessary to faster growth are not resolved.

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