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Johannesburg - The median forecast of 20 economists polled by Reuters is for growth to have slowed slightly in the first quarter to 4.2% quarter-on-quarter on an annualised and seasonally adjusted basis compared with 4.4% in the fourth quarter.
On an adjusted basis, gross domestic product is seen at 3.6% from 3.8% in the previous quarter.
Factors to watch
South Africa's economy grew by 2.8% in 2010 after a recession in 2009, the first since 1992.
The recovery has been weak, with household spending - a key driver of growth between 2003 and 2007 - yet to return to robust levels after a million jobs were lost during the slump.
Consumers are hesitant to borrow to fund purchases despite interest rates that are at 30-year lows after the central bank cut rates by 650 basis points in the two years to December 2010.
The central bank has said consumer spending is not an inflation threat at present.
Manufacturing has also improved but output levels are not at pre-recession levels. The Purchasing Managers' Index fell slightly in April, suggesting that growth in the sector was uneven.
The manufacturing sector is the second biggest contributor to GDP and is key for creating jobs in a country where a quarter of the workforce is unemployed.
The Treasury expects the economy to grow by 3.4% this year. The government has said the rate of growth needs to double to about 7% to make a dent in unemployment.
Any significant slowing of growth will put the government's plans to create about 5 million jobs by 2020 in jeopardy.
Market reaction
If the GDP number comes in lower than expected it will strengthen the view that the central bank may leave rates steady this year.
Such an outcome will further boost bonds, which have already been enjoying support from foreign buyers.
Inflation numbers for April were softer than expected, supporting the view that the economy is not strong enough to withstand monetary policy tightening right now.
The central bank has said it will be "vigilant" with respect to signs of generalised inflation.
A GDP reading that is significantly higher than expectations could boost the rand in anticipation of a rise in interest rates that would increas the currency's appeal to investors.
On an adjusted basis, gross domestic product is seen at 3.6% from 3.8% in the previous quarter.
Factors to watch
South Africa's economy grew by 2.8% in 2010 after a recession in 2009, the first since 1992.
The recovery has been weak, with household spending - a key driver of growth between 2003 and 2007 - yet to return to robust levels after a million jobs were lost during the slump.
Consumers are hesitant to borrow to fund purchases despite interest rates that are at 30-year lows after the central bank cut rates by 650 basis points in the two years to December 2010.
The central bank has said consumer spending is not an inflation threat at present.
Manufacturing has also improved but output levels are not at pre-recession levels. The Purchasing Managers' Index fell slightly in April, suggesting that growth in the sector was uneven.
The manufacturing sector is the second biggest contributor to GDP and is key for creating jobs in a country where a quarter of the workforce is unemployed.
The Treasury expects the economy to grow by 3.4% this year. The government has said the rate of growth needs to double to about 7% to make a dent in unemployment.
Any significant slowing of growth will put the government's plans to create about 5 million jobs by 2020 in jeopardy.
Market reaction
If the GDP number comes in lower than expected it will strengthen the view that the central bank may leave rates steady this year.
Such an outcome will further boost bonds, which have already been enjoying support from foreign buyers.
Inflation numbers for April were softer than expected, supporting the view that the economy is not strong enough to withstand monetary policy tightening right now.
The central bank has said it will be "vigilant" with respect to signs of generalised inflation.
A GDP reading that is significantly higher than expectations could boost the rand in anticipation of a rise in interest rates that would increas the currency's appeal to investors.
