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Johannesburg - South Africa's producer price index
(PPI) registered deflation of -3.7% year-on-year (y/y) in September from -4.0%
y/y in August, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) data on Thursday showed.
The PPI decreased 3.2% on a monthly basis after August's monthly increase
of 0.3%.
The PPI was expected to have decreased at 2.8% y/y according to a survey of
11 leading economists by I-Net Bridge, with forecasts ranging from -3.8% to -1.0% y/y.
Exports were at -11.2% y/y from -9.2% in August.
Imports were at -16.2% y/y from -17.8% the month before.
Stats SA attributed the slightly higher rate in September compared with
August to increases in petroleum and coal (-30.2% to -26.6%), basic metals (-13.2 to -13.1) and mining and quarrying (-14.6 to -10.8).
These increases were counteracted by decreases in electricity (28.6% to
28.1%), food at manufacturing (0.1% to -1.8%).
The jump into double digits in October 2006 was the first double-digit
increase since December 2002.
The annual PPI in 2008 increased to 14.2% from a revised 10.9% (10%) seen
in 2007 and from 7.7% in 2006. The annual average for PPI in 2005 was just
3.1%. PPI was at an average of 0.6% in 2004, 1.7% in 2003 and 14.2% in 2002.
The 2004 average was the lowest since 1959, when there was no change in
producer prices. The lowest annual consumer inflation in the post-1945 period
was also in 1959 at 1.1%.
New weightings were introduced in the January 2008 data, but with no
backdating. The new weightings now also make it difficult to use PPI as a
leading indicator of CPI.
- I-Net Bridge