Cape Town - While Nersa continues its public hearings on Eskom's tariff application, the Minister of Energy on December 31 published an integrated resource plan for energy in the Government Gazette which, according to environmental group WWF-SA, failed to take into account the most recent developments at Eskom.

The resource plan sets out a scheme for electricity supply up to and including 2013, but does not allow for the postponement of the construction of the Kusile power station, on which Eskom's latest tariff application is based, says WWF-SA.

The group reckons the secretive publication of the plan on December 31 threatens the sense of contributions from all players in the controversial tariff-increase applications.

The WWF-SA's trade adviser, Peet du Plooy, says the so-called resource plan consists of hardly more than an extract from one of the tables in a previous leaked plan, which is believed to have been rejected by Cabinet. The only addition is an amendment to the amount of energy savings expected from Eskom's demand-side management programme.

The publication of the plan is an attempt to comply with the 2008 Energy Act, which requires the Minister to publish such a plan every year. The act stipulates that the plan must contain energy demand and supply projections for 20 years.

The plan ignores Eskom's announcement that construction at Kusile has been put off to save money, and assumes that Eskom's deferred solar and wind projects will become operational this year.

Too little, too late

The total renewable energy capacity up to 2013 envisaged by the plan is moreover a meagre 725MW, compared with the 1 320MW prescribed by the 2003 White Paper on Renewable Energy.

The plan indicates demand-side savings that are much higher than in the original resource plan. These rise from savings of 400MW in 2009 to more than 3 000MW in 2013.

The WWF-SA reckons that Eskom's plan to have one million solar water heaters installed by 2013 would bring about a total saving of 1 000MW, at most.

In terms of the plan Eskom's reserve - additional emergency generation capacity - could rise from 18% to 22%, which is unrealistic against Eskom's own estimate that its reserve is about 8% and needs to rise to at least 15%.

WWF-SA observes the coal-fired power stations Medupi and Kusile together will cost to R262bn. Each of these power stations would release as much carbon dioxide as does the whole of New Zealand, or as much as the 30 countries in Africa that release the least amount of greenhouse gas.

This makes a mockery, the WWF-SA insists, of South Africa's commitment last year in Copenhagen to reduce its emissions by 34% by 2020.

The environmental group says that a combination of co-generation by industries, with wind power and solar power from independent power producers at an average cost of R1.50 per kilowatt, will supply as much power as Medupi and Kusile would, and lift electricity prices from 33c/kWh to 58.6c/kWh by 2012, rather than the 82c that Eskom forecasts.

The price will moreover be fixed thanks to 20-year electricity purchasing agreements, compared with Eskom's warning that, over and above the steep hikes now being applied for, it could approach Nersa for further increases in subsequent years.

- Sake24.com

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