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Emerging markets hold breath for Fed

London - Emerging stocks eased on Tuesday as markets waited to see if the Federal Reserve will continue its money-printing policy, but the ruble continued to strengthen on high oil prices and upbeat policymaker comments.

The US Federal Reserve starts a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, at which it is likely to discuss when to begin exiting its ultra-easy monetary policy.

Analysts mostly expect US policymakers to stick to a plan to complete a $600bn bond-buying programme, keeping policy loose at a time when European central banks are already raising interest rates and boosting the appeal of higher-yielding emerging markets.

"We have seen a bit of positioning reduction around the holiday period;, we saw a modest pullback in equities in the US yesterday," said Manik Narain, emerging FX strategist at UBS.

"But generally risky assets are holding up reasonably well." The MSCI emerging equities index hit its lowest since April 20 before trimming losses to trade 0.20% lower on the day. The Thomson Reuters emerging Europe index was steady.

Emerging sovereign debt spreads inched in by 1 basis point to 268 bps over US Treasuries.

The rand remained softer against the dollar and the JSE was relatively flat in midday trade.

Commodity-producing emerging economies are benefiting from continued high prices. The ruble rose to fresh two-and-a-half-year highs around 27.8 against the dollar, after Russian deputy economy minister Andrei Klepach said the currency may appreciate to as far as 24 to 25 at current oil prices.

"It is becoming clear that... a stronger ruble is one of the mechanisms that will be used to try and contain inflation," said Chris Weafer, chief strategist at Uralsib, in a client note.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's central bank is allowing banks to buy and sell foreign currency on the same day and is also permitting local banks to enter foreign currency swaps, said first deputy chairperson Yuri Kolobov.

Ukraine introduced currency trading restrictions during the global financial crisis, but has been recovering well since the crisis.

The hryvnia is trading around 8 per dollar, compared to levels closer to 10 at the height of the crisis, in early 2009.

Hungary's special tax on the financial sector will decline by 35% in 2013 and another 35% in 2014, according to a deal between the government and the banks, Hungarian business website mfor.hu reported on Tuesday.

Hungarian assets suffered last year due to unorthodox policy measures by the government, but investors have become more comfortable with the country's reform programme.

The forint was steady against the euro, below recent one-year highs.
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Rand - Dollar
18.98
+0.2%
Rand - Pound
23.81
-0.0%
Rand - Euro
20.40
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