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Johannesburg - Analysts spoken to by I-Net Bridge
raised questions over the fact that Eskom is exporting as much electricity as it is, given the current power crisis at home, with the last quarter of 2007 showing that Eskom increased exports by 2.8% while imports declined by 2.4%.
SA remains a net exporter of electricity, although recent data shows Eskom increased electricity exports in 2007 by 3.3%, with imports escalating by 15.7%. However, for 2007 exports were at 14 217 gigawatt hours and imports 11 318.
It is strange then that public enterprises minister Alec Erwin stated recently that SA is a net importer of electricity. There is no doubt that a better solution would be to cut the exports if there are so many problems at home. It is untenable that SA can export electricity in this environment.
The overall trend in both electricity consumption growth and production growth remains downwards, and this is expected to continue, as consumers resort to more efficient ways of using electricity and finding other means of power while Eskom scrambles to build new power stations in order to meet demand.
Year-on-year growth in electricity production increased in December to 3.7% from 3.5% in November.
Well publicised problems
The state's power utility Eskom managed to increase electricity production by only 3.8% in 2007 compared to 3.7% in 2006.
Growth in electricity consumption continued to decline in December to 1.8% from 2.8% in November, possibly due to load shedding during the month.
Overall electricity consumption growth for 2007 increased by 4.4% compared to 3.6% in 2006. These figures indicate the extent to which electricity demand growth has outpaced electricity supply growth over the past year, not unexpected
with economic growth of around 4-5%.
The supply constraints facing Eskom are well publicised, with the effects of load shedding having placed a significant amount of pressure on the entire South African economy.
Growth prospects for the country are also vulnerable on the back of slowing global growth, the possibility of a US recession, high interest rates and slowing consumer demand.