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Economic growth 'has returned'

Nov 20 2009 17:35 Print this article  |  Email article

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Johannesburg - South Africa's economy is expected to have turned the corner during the third quarter, with growth in gross domestic product expected to be 0.7% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted annualised), according to a poll of leading economists.

This will follow from the -3.0% and -6.4% in the first and second quarters. Statistics SA is due to release GDP growth figures on Tuesday.

The third-quarter GDP of 2008 was the fortieth consecutive quarter of positive growth since 1998, but this came tumbling down in the fourth quarter as the first decline in a decade was registered.

The range of forecasts for the current survey was from -0.6% q/q to +2.0%, with a feature being that seven of the eight economists surveyed saw a move out of negative territory. Two of them, though, penned in growth of 0.0%.

Personal services, general government, public sector projects, electricity consumption and manufacturing production are expected to provide some strength, but construction activity is in for a mild slowdown. Finance and trade are expected to be the largest detractors from growth.

- I-Net Bridge

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