EU drags on world economy, US fares better

2012-03-01 18:32

London/Beijing - Prospects for a sustained global economic recovery darkened on Thursday as sputtering factory activity in Europe overshadowed more upbeat data from Asia, at a time when central banks are running out of policy options and reluctant to do more.

But news that US jobless claims hovered near a four-year low was a reminder that the world's largest economy, where the global financial crisis began in 2008, is on a more solid and possibly more self-sustaining recovery path.

Data also showed that Americans held back with their personal expenditure in January, showing a smaller rise than expected against a backdrop of mild inflation pressure.

In Europe, factory activity at best stagnated, and in Spain and Greece it contracted sharply, according to latest purchasing managers' indices (PMIs). Chinese and Indian manufacturing is growing, but at a more modest pace than in the recent past.

The data come just a day after the European Central Bank (ECB) pumped €530bn of cash into the banking system, likely its last such salvo in a battle to bring down yields on government bond and stave off a credit crunch.

But despite another bailout for Greece and success in lowering borrowing costs - Spain sold 4.5bn of government bonds on Thursday at lower yields than previous sales - Europe is still casting a dark shadow over the world economy.
"Clearly the eurozone crisis is having an impact upon global activity, and that is going to be a theme for some time to come," said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank.

What is most troublesome is that several countries in the eurozone periphery such as Greece, Spain and to a lesser extent Italy are in recession, while the strongest economies - Germany and France - are barely growing.
Markit's Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 49.0 last month from January's 48.8, in line with a flash reading. But it has now been below the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction since July.

It now looks all but certain the 17-member eurozone is stuck in a mild recession. Even Germany, a top world exporter of manufactured goods, is struggling.

"In order to confirm the view of a more robust pick-up later in the year we would need to see much stronger numbers in the months ahead," Dixon said.

A Reuters poll on Thursday predicted that both the ECB and the Bank of England (BoE) will hold off on further monetary policy easing. That is a reversal from recent surveys, which had the ECB cutting rates one more time and the BoE ramping up its bond purchase programme.

In the United States, Federal Reserve chairperson Ben Bernanke poured cold water on Wednesday on the notion recent upbeat signs herald a stronger recovery. But at the same time, more quantative easing there is also looking less likely.

Comparable PMI data are expected to show manufacturers in the US, the world's biggest economy, increased production moderately.

Greek depression

Greece's factories are in freefall and its economic data point to depression rather than recession.

Its manufacturing sector shrank at the fastest pace in at least 13 years just as the country is set to be hit by another wave of austerity cuts in return for the latest bailout cash.

In Spain, where the government is struggling to slash its public deficit, factories shed jobs at the fastest rate in more than two years, worsening employment prospects in a country where more than one in five is already out of work.

Unemployment in the bloc rose to a euro-era high of 10.7% in January, official data showed earlier on Thursday.

The economic picture remained slightly better in Britain than continental Europe.

But its manufacturing sector grew at a slower pace than expected in February, further evidence that the economy is vulnerable particularly to any more trouble in the eurozone, its main trading partner.

Asia engine still running

Asia is slowing but remains the growth engine of the world economy. Its major central banks could also cut interest rates if needed to cushion any further slowdown.

New factory orders for Asia's manufacturing powerhouses perked up in February, easing some concerns about the global economic slowdown, with China's factories growing more than expected.

The surveys, the first leads on factory activity in the region, offered tentative signs of a recovery from the slump in the final months of 2011 caused by faltering external demand and fragile business and consumer sentiment.

But the economic picture was far from complete.

"February numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt since they may be inflated by 'payback' production activity after the Chinese lunar new year not fully captured by seasonal adjustments," said Nikolaus Keis at UniCredit.

"Nevertheless, taken together, PMI figures indicate that China's manufacturing activity at least stabilised in February."

India's manufacturing expansion eased back from its strongest pace in eight months for a PMI of 56.6 in February compared with 57.5 in January. However, new orders touched a 10-month high.

Like in many countries though, official Indian data don't paint such a rosy picture.
Overall economic growth slipped to its slowest pace in nearly three years in the final quarter of 2011, with manufacturing and mining at the fore of the slowdown, figures showed on Wednesday.