Doubts about Durban

Johannesburg - A United Nations climate change summit, which already promises only modest steps for cutting greenhouse gas pollution, could be in more trouble unless host South Africa sharpens up its international image.

The 190-nation gathering at the end of this month in Durban follows years of fraught attempts to win agreement on strong emission curbs from big polluting nations.

Expectations of success are already low for the talks where parties are trying to find a way of saving the landmark Kyoto Protocol on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which expires at the end of 2012.

Analysts expect all the same that the talks will produce a face-saving measure to prevent the Kyoto deal from dying in Durban.

But the cloud has deepened after a series of diplomatic gaffes by the host country which have eroded confidence in its ability to take a grip of the debate and help shape the summit’s outcome.

Furthermore, South Africa has strained relations with major Western powers which are normally major fund sources of global policies but are increasingly reluctant to allocate money due to debt worries in the eurozone and United States.

South Africa has found itself on the wrong side of the mainstream argument over Libya and Ivory Coast. Western powers also raised their eyebrows when Pretoria blocked a visit by the Dalai Lama to please China, its biggest trading partner.

Analysts recall the Copenhagen climate talks of 2009 which were roundly regarded as a failure, in part because the host country could not do the heavy lifting to broker the deals required.

"I think they are so afraid of leading and that makes them come across as not very strong," said Ferrial Adam, a climate and energy campaigner at Greenpeace Africa.

"South Africa has been playing a very cautious role. I think they have been looking at what happened in Copenhagen and don't want a diplomatic disaster to happen here."

The talks in 2010 in Cancun were regarded as a relative success, with many negotiators crediting Mexican envoys for pushing the process forward.

"The role of the host is not a prerequisite for a good or bad outcome. It comes down more to the actual individual who is the environment minister and whether they take an active role," said Kirsty Hamilton, associate fellow, energy, environment and development programme at London-based think tank Chatham House.

Environment Minister Edna Molewa is a highly-regarded domestic political operative with almost no experience in global negotiations.

Foreign Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane has more international experience, serving as an ambassador, but has not been seen as a force in regional or global diplomacy.

Wrong side of global opinion

It was Mashabane's diplomacy which came in for Western criticism when Pretoria supported entrenched and autocratic leaders in Libya, Syria and Ivory Coast. Its stance strained ties with the European Union and Washington.

The refusal to allow the Dalai Lama, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate seen as a dangerous separatist by Beijing, to attend Desmond Tutu's 80th birthday also provoked an outcry.

Foreign Policy magazine dubbed South Africa a "cowardly lion". Critics said the ANC has compromised ideals it embraced when it fought to end apartheid. "Principles have fallen to such an extent that nobody expects them to do the right thing," said a diplomat in Pretoria.

While cosy South African-Chinese ties may not cause many waves in the international economy, they could undermine the climate talks with China being the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

Some developed nations, including the United States, want China to make its carbon intensity cut target part of a UN deal before they sign up for deep and legally binding cuts.

In theory, South Africa could be an ideal host, serving as a bridge between the developed and developing world as well as being the voice for the quickly emerging African continent.

That is the line being espoused by diplomats on the record, with the likes of British Climate Change Minister Greg Barker saying he is "incredibly impressed" with South Africa.

A research note from HSBC pinned modest hopes on South Africa as a negotiator for powerful developing nations that include Brazil, India and China and are known as the Basic group.

"Our view is that on balance, key emerging economies in the Basic bloc will not force a breakdown of negotiations on the soil of one of their members," it said.

Many envoys are reserving judgement on South Africa, waiting to see if its low-key approach will yield results.

But sources close to the EU Commission said there are fears that if Durban is a failure, South Africa may be held responsible after the fact.