Johannesburg - A United Nations climate change summit, which
already promises only modest steps for cutting greenhouse gas pollution, could
be in more trouble unless host South Africa sharpens up its international
image.
The 190-nation gathering at the end of this month in Durban
follows years of fraught attempts to win agreement on strong emission curbs
from big polluting nations.
Expectations of success are already low for the talks where
parties are trying to find a way of saving the landmark Kyoto Protocol on
reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which expires at the end of 2012.
Analysts expect all the same that the talks will produce a
face-saving measure to prevent the Kyoto deal from dying in Durban.
But the cloud has deepened after a series of diplomatic
gaffes by the host country which have eroded confidence in its ability to take
a grip of the debate and help shape the summit’s outcome.
Furthermore, South Africa has strained relations with major
Western powers which are normally major fund sources of global policies but are
increasingly reluctant to allocate money due to debt worries in the eurozone
and United States.
South Africa has found itself on the wrong side of the
mainstream argument over Libya and Ivory Coast. Western powers also raised
their eyebrows when Pretoria blocked a visit by the Dalai Lama to please China,
its biggest trading partner.
Analysts recall the Copenhagen climate talks of 2009 which
were roundly regarded as a failure, in part because the host country could not
do the heavy lifting to broker the deals required.
"I think they are so afraid of leading and that makes
them come across as not very strong," said Ferrial Adam, a climate and
energy campaigner at Greenpeace Africa.
"South Africa has been playing a very cautious role. I
think they have been looking at what happened in Copenhagen and don't want a
diplomatic disaster to happen here."
The talks in 2010 in Cancun were regarded as a relative
success, with many negotiators crediting Mexican envoys for pushing the process
forward.
"The role of the host is not a prerequisite for a good
or bad outcome. It comes down more to the actual individual who is the
environment minister and whether they take an active role," said Kirsty
Hamilton, associate fellow, energy, environment and development programme at
London-based think tank Chatham House.
Environment Minister Edna Molewa is a highly-regarded
domestic political operative with almost no experience in global negotiations.
Foreign Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane has more
international experience, serving as an ambassador, but has not been seen as a
force in regional or global diplomacy.
Wrong side of global opinion
It was Mashabane's diplomacy which came in for Western
criticism when Pretoria supported entrenched and autocratic leaders in Libya,
Syria and Ivory Coast. Its stance strained ties with the European Union and
Washington.
The refusal to allow the Dalai Lama, a Nobel Peace Prize
laureate seen as a dangerous separatist by Beijing, to attend Desmond Tutu's
80th birthday also provoked an outcry.
Foreign Policy magazine dubbed South Africa a "cowardly
lion". Critics said the ANC has compromised ideals it embraced when it
fought to end apartheid. "Principles have fallen to such an extent that
nobody expects them to do the right thing," said a diplomat in Pretoria.
While cosy South African-Chinese ties may not cause many
waves in the international economy, they could undermine the climate talks with
China being the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases.
Some developed nations, including the United States, want
China to make its carbon intensity cut target part of a UN deal before they
sign up for deep and legally binding cuts.
In theory, South Africa could be an ideal host, serving as a
bridge between the developed and developing world as well as being the voice
for the quickly emerging African continent.
That is the line being espoused by diplomats on the record,
with the likes of British Climate Change Minister Greg Barker saying he is
"incredibly impressed" with South Africa.
A research note from HSBC pinned modest hopes on South
Africa as a negotiator for powerful developing nations that include Brazil,
India and China and are known as the Basic group.
"Our view is that on balance, key emerging economies in
the Basic bloc will not force a breakdown of negotiations on the soil of one of
their members," it said.
Many envoys are reserving judgement on South Africa, waiting
to see if its low-key approach will yield results.
But sources close to the EU Commission said there are fears that
if Durban is a failure, South Africa may be held responsible after the fact.