Did Tito get the boot?

WAS he pushed or did he jump? That's the question on many journalists' minds when it comes to Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni, who will be replaced in November by Gill Marcus.

Of course, when trying to answer the question one can only speculate, as the main actors in this particular melodrama are keeping silent.

By the way, is it safe now to refer to Tito by his catchy first name since he will soon have less power to exercise against journalists for the alleged disrespect? Or will he emerge from early retirement on his unprofitable avocado farm in Limpopo in a new top job, from where he will resume being oversensitive to perceived slights from journalists?

Did Mboweni - let's play it safe with the name - want to stay in his job?

Think back to 2008, when he made a throwaway comment at a function reported by Reuters that he thought 10 years was too long for one person to remain in a senior position. Was Mboweni being honest about his feelings? Did the avocado farm and fly-fishing beckon?

Or was it a clever ploy?

Did Mboweni - knowing that journalists were scribbling - try to "do a Manuel"? That is, did he try to emulate former finance minister Trevor Manuel, whose brief resignation in September when Thabo Mbeki was ousted as president led to the rand plummeting and the stock exchange falling?

Attack with a hidden agenda

If Mboweni was hoping the markets would react negatively at the thought of his departure, his ploy did not succeed. On the day the comments were reported, the rand strengthened. Then Mboweni moved to make it clear that he was still "prepared to serve". (If the truth was told on Sunday, it turns out he wasn't.)

But then there was also Mboweni's curious attack on the banks a few months ago, when he basically accused them of overcharging customers on interest rates. He complained that the margin of 3.5 percentage points between the repo rate and the prime overdraft rate was too wide and that the banks had some explaining to do.

For technical reasons too complex to go into now, the banks were baffled by the complaint. But an investigation has been launched. Cynics would say that Mboweni was trying to curry favour with the government and the left by being hard on the banks - to keep his job.

However, this was followed by Mboweni's spat with the National Union of Metalworkers of SA (Numsa), which was not the behaviour of a man intent on hanging on to his job. The decision not to send a representative to receive Numsa's memorandum at a protest outside the reserve bank in May was an act of utter contempt towards the left.

One of two things motivated his action. It's possible that by then he knew his fate - that President Jacob Zuma was going to get rid of him, nothing could change it, and he would show his contempt as he pleased. Or he knew that he himself had decided to leave, and he could afford to be contemptuous.

New buzzword

Mboweni later held a fairly long meeting with Numsa, which led to both parties saying that no conclusion could be reached. Cosatu secretary-general Zwelinzima Vavi this week described Mboweni's behaviour as "arrogant" and "dismissive". No doubt Numsa bore the full brunt of this attitude.

One could argue that Mboweni was obviously tired of explaining the basics of central banking and inflation targeting to the ignorant, which was one of the reasons why he had had enough. But I think President Zuma and the ANC wanted him out anyway. He might have jumped - but he would have been pushed if he hadn't.

The reason for wanting Mboweni gone lies in a new trend towards "debate" of economic policies in the alliance. Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan has said inflation targeting can be debated.

True, he later confirmed that inflation targeting remained government policy, as did Planning Minister Trevor Manuel. But the phrase "inflation targeting" was conspicuously absent from the announcement about Marcus - most notably from her.

What happens next? Perhaps the answer can be discerned from the current "debate" about nationalisation of the mines. The ANC's economic transformation committee is now "taking forward" this debate. If ever there was an issue that was settled 15 years ago, this is it. But a pretence is necessary, to please the left.

My guess is that we will have a sham debate about inflation targeting - and that this isn't possible with Mboweni at the helm of the Reserve Bank, as he has so totally nailed his colours to the mast of inflation targeting. Better to bring in someone new - and, from Marcus' comments, not committed - to take part in the charade.

So, Mboweni may have wanted out, but that probably played neatly into the hands of the new government. A happy arrangement all around.

- Fin24.com