Johannesburg - A hike in interest rates in December in light of a weak rand is now not likely after credit extension data came in well below expectations today.
Fanie Joubert, economist from Efficient Group, told I-Net Bridge on Wednesday that he was viewing today's credit figure as a "deciding factor" on what to expect come December in light of the rand weakness.
He said there were concerns around interest rates due to the rand weakness as the weak rand had inflation follow-through.
"But the lower trend in credit extension will probably induce the central bank to sit fast," he said.
The next rate decision is due on December 11. At the last meeting on October 9 the rand was pinpointed as a key inflation concern, and since then it headed back to worst levels last seen in 2001 as the global turmoil struck hard.
This had raised fears - evident in the bond curve - that there was a chance of another rate hike. However, bonds took the news of muted credit extension well on Wednesday and strengthened over 20 basis points at the short end.
Another nasty outcome of higher rates at the moment is that they are already inducing consumer debt defaults.
Kevin Lings, chief economist from Stanlib, says there is "growing evidence" that consumer debt defaults are rising.
"Most banks and retailers have reported a noticeable increase in bad debts during the past year, albeit off a very low base. In addition, insolvencies are showing a noticeable increase. These trends are likely to intensify in the months ahead and become far more noticeable in 2009."
If lower consumption persists via another rate hike there is also a risk of an all-out consumer recession, according to Lings.
The rand has become more stable in the last two days as the financial packages around the world start adding some hope and rate cuts in the developed world help emerging market sentiment.
There seems to be too much evidence now stacked against another rate hike for it to be viable.
Rates set to stay on hold
Come December 10, the possibility will probably be discussed and quickly dismissed, with the attention turning to second-round effects, inflation trends - which to get lower - and the impact of the reweighting next year.
A pause is therefore likely until more evidence is available, and according to Lings the best time to make an informed decision on cutting rates will only happen in April next year.
Tomorrow's CPI inflation must now play along and point to the peak having come in August. The consensus is for a dip to 13.2% from 13.6%.
Credit extension to the private sector (PSCE) grew at a rate of 16.42% year-on-year (y/y) in September from 18.64% in August, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) said on Wednesday.
The rate of growth of South Africa's broad M3 money supply measure rose by 15.23% in the year to end-September from 15.42% in the year to end-August.
South Africa's total domestic credit extension had a growth rate of 19.11% y/y in September from 20.63% in August.
The rate of growth in credit extension was expected to have increased at a slower 17.9% year-on-year (y/y) in September from August's 18.6%, according to I-Net Bridge's econometer.
South Africa's broad M3 money supply aggregate growth rate, meanwhile, was expected to have increased in September at 15.2% y/y from August's 15.4% increase.
Forecasts among the nine leading economists surveyed for PSCE ranged from 17.0% to 19.2%, while the range of forecasts for M3 was from just 13.2% to 16.2% at the top of the range.
PSCE was at a whopping 22.5% a year ago, while M3 was at 25.0%, providing a statistical high base.
Overall credit was at 22.3% in June 2006 when interest rates were first hiked by 50 basis points and the current number will be an important factor being monitored by the central bank for signs of a lower trend. This trend is now emerging very clearly.
- I-Net Bridge