Cape Town - Proposals to review the mandate of the Reserve Bank was a face-saving exercise for the ANC's partners trade federation Cosatu and the South African Communist Party (SACP), which had earlier climbed down on proposals regarding the national planning commission.
So said political analysts polled by Fin24.com. They added that adjustments intended to accommodate recessionary conditions should not be interpreted as ground-breaking policy shifts motivated by the left.
The SACP and Cosatu were opposed to Manuel's heading of the national planning commission, which they claimed made him the de facto prime minister. They also opposed Manuel's introduction of an external body of consultants, preferring ANC representatives instead.
However, the left's alternative plan was rebuffed at the weekend by President Jacob Zuma, who backed Manuel and said that ANC influence on the commission would only lead to turf battles.
University of the Witwatersrand Professor Anthony Butler told Fin24.com that the concession to review the Reserve Bank mandate, published in newspapers on Monday, was more a face-saving exercise for the left than concrete proof of more left-wing influences.
Steven Friedman, director of the Centre for the Study of Democracy, agreed. Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and Reserve Bank governor Jill Marcus had already agreed fiscal and monetary policy were open for debate.
Lenin not taking over
The point was not that this was not something new, but rather that Cosatu and the SACP were unable to push the ANC into an agreement to scrap inflation targeting, said Friedman.
"Why is there a continual and desperate attempt to present as new what is not new?" asked Friedman. "Surely the test is the hard and concrete decisions taken by government and the Reserve Bank, and not vague utterances about reviews," he said.
Friedman warned against confusing policy shifts with the adjustments any government had to make in the current recessionary economic climate.
When German Chancellor Engela Merkel makes adjustments to accommodate the recessionary environment, it's accepted as normal.
But when South Africa talks about making similar adjustments, it's labelled as proof that "Lenin has taken over", he said.
The fact that South Africa is debating policy change at all relates to a dramatic shift in management at ANC leadership level, political analysts said.
"Under Mbeki you were told to keep quiet because you had not read the right books, and under Zuma the attitude is 'comrades you have a point, let's debate it'," said Friedman.
Wits Professor Susan Booysen pointed to Zuma's repeated promise to follow a process of debate on all issues.
While placating the alliance partners with debates that can be paraded as victories to their constituencies, they privately concede there is little they can do to force the ANC's hand. But for now they've promised that this is not the "end of the war" for policy change.
- Fin24.com