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Consumer demand pushes SA into deficit

Johannesburg - South Africa's trade account fell into deficit in October, data showed on Tuesday, reflecting a traditional rise in consumer demand ahead of the festive holiday season.

The trade deficit for October was R3.2bn compared with a R3.6bn surplus in September, the South African Revenue Service (Sars) said.

Exports fell by 6.3% month-on-month (m/m) in October while imports were up 7%.

Sars said the cumulative deficit for the year to date was R13.2bn, compared with a R26.7bn shortfall at the same time last year.

Economists polled by Reuters last week had forecast a R2bn shortfall for October.

"For October, which usually sees a painfully large blowout in the deficit just ahead of Christmas, this isn't such a bad print at all. 

"Moreover, the cumulative deficit is very moderate," said Razia Khan, head of Africa Research at Standard Chartered.

"Even though this is a little wider than consensus, it should not be seen as a rand negative. Demand is still pretty subdued for now."

The rand was marginally weaker at R7.13/$, compared with R7.11/$ before the data was released.

The trade balance swung back to a surplus in September, the first positive showing since July, but analysts predicted a move back into deficit in the next few months due to strong consumer spending.

Lower interest rates are also seen as supporting household spending. The central bank has cut its repo rate by 650 basis points since December 2008 to a historic low of 5.5%.

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