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Climate change to impact food prices more

London - The seriousness of climate change in Southern Africa can be pictured in terms of the number of people it increasingly affects.

The eight events of the decade 1980-1989 affected 1 918 000 people in total. The twelve events of the decade 1990-1999 affected just about 2 190 500 persons in total (representing only a mild increase).

However, the 77 events of the decade 2000-2009 affected up to 11 405 434 people, the worst affected countries being Mozambique, Zambia and Malawi.

In Southern Africa, food price inflation has been in a very significant upward rise.

Climate change could put back the fight against hunger by 40 years, but the global food system is woefully unprepared to cope with the challenge, said international aid organisation Oxfam on Tuesday.

The warning comes as governments gather in Japan to agree a major new scientific report, which is expected to show that the impacts of climate change on food will be far more serious and will hit much sooner than previously thought.

Report

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fifth Assessment Report on Climate Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation, due to be published on March 31, is expected to warn that climate change will lead to declines in global agricultural yields of up to 2% each decade at the same time as demand for food increases by 14% per decade.

It is also expected to warn of higher and more volatile food prices - Oxfam estimates world cereal prices could double by 2030, with half of this rise driven by climate change.

This may cut the availability of calories from cereals to levels not seen since the 1990s. While temperature rises of just 1.5 degrees will have serious impacts on our food system the IPCC is also expected to highlight a global temperature threshold of 3 - 4 degrees beyond which we will experience runaway global food crises - we are on track to reach this threshold in the second half of this century.

Winnie Byanyima, Executive Director of Oxfam International said: "Climate change is the biggest threat to our chances of winning the fight against hunger. It could have grave consequences for what we all eat, but the world is woefully underprepared for it."

Hunger

"Hunger is not inevitable," said Byanyima. "If governments act on climate change, it will still be possible to eradicate hunger in the next decade and ensure our children and grandchildren have enough to eat in the second half of the century."

Without urgent action to cut greenhouse gas emissions, the impacts will become more serious. It is estimated there could be 25 million more malnourished children under the age of five in 2050 compared to a world without climate change - that’s the equivalent of all under-fives in the US and Canada combined.

Oxfam has also carried out a global analysis of progress in ten important areas which reveals that steps to climate proof the food system are falling short.

Problems include a lack of irrigation, a shortfall in agricultural research and development, a shortage of food stocks and a significant gap in climate funding so countries can adapt and grow enough food.

Poor countries’ adaptation needs are estimated to be around $100bn a year - equivalent to just 5% of the wealth among the world’s 100 richest people.

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