Singapore - US Republican lawmakers are “playing with fire”
by contemplating even a brief debt default as a means to force deeper
government spending cuts, an adviser to China’s central bank said on Wednesday.
The idea of a technical default - essentially delaying
interest payments for a few days - has gained backing from a growing number of
mainstream Republicans, who see it as a price worth paying if it forces the
White House to slash spending.
But any form of default could destabilise the global economy
and sour already tense relations with big US creditors such as China,
government officials and investors warn.
Li Daokui, an adviser to the People’s Bank of China, said a
default could undermine the US dollar, and Beijing needed to dissuade
Washington from pursuing this course of action.
“I think there is a risk that the US debt default may
happen,” Li told reporters on the sidelines of a forum in Beijing. “The result
will be very serious and I really hope that they would stop playing with fire.”
China is the largest foreign creditor to the United States,
holding more than $1 trillion in Treasury debt as of March, US data shows, so
its concerns carry considerable weight in Washington.
The US Congress has balked at increasing a statutory limit
on government spending, as lawmakers argue over how to curb a deficit which is
projected to reach $1.4 trillion this fiscal year. The US Treasury Department
has said it will run out of borrowing room by August 2.
If the United States cannot make interest payments on its
debt, the Obama administration has warned of “catastrophic” consequences that
could push the still-fragile economy back into recession.
“It has dire implications for the economy at a time when the macro data is softening,” said Ben Westmore, a commodities economist at National Australia Bank.
“It’s just a horrible idea,” he said.
'Wouldn't happen'
The Republicans’ theory is that bondholders would accept a
brief delay in interest payments if it meant Washington finally addressed its
long-term fiscal problems, putting the country in a stronger position to meet
its debt obligations later on.
But interviews with government officials and investors show
they consider a default such a grim - and remote - possibility that it was
nearly impossible to imagine.
“How can the US be allowed to default?” said an official at
India’s central bank. “We don’t think this is a possibility because this could
then create huge panic globally.”
Indian officials say they have little choice but to buy US
Treasury debt because it is still among the world’s safest and most liquid
investments. It held $39.8bn in US Treasuries as of March, US data shows.
The officials declined to be identified because they are not
authorised to speak to the media.
“It just wouldn’t happen,” said Barry Evans, who oversees
$83bn in fixed income assets at Manulife Asset Management. “They would pay
their Treasury bills first instead of other bills. It’s as simple as that.”
Marc Ostwald, a strategist with Monument Securities in
London, called the default scenario “frightening” and said bondholders’
patience would wear thin if lawmakers persisted in pitching this strategy in
the coming weeks.
“This isn’t a debate, this is like a Mexican standoff and
that is where the problem lies,” he said.
Yuan Gangming, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences, a government think tank, smelt some political wrangling
behind the US debt debate as the 2012 presidential election draws nearer. He
said Republicans “want to make things difficult for Obama”.
But with time running short before the US Treasury exhausts
its borrowing room, Yuan said default was a real risk.
“The possibility is quite high to see a default of the US debt, which would harm many countries in the world, and China in particular,” he said.