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Johannesburg - Analysts were cautious about the effect of a power-sharing agreement in Zimbabwe, announced on Thursday night, on South African business.
It could provide a marginal boost for the bourse on Friday, predicted one investment analyst, who wanted to remain anonymous.
But Dawie Roodt, chief economist at the Efficient Group, was more sceptical and didn't expect any impact. It remains to be seen whether the international community will find the deal acceptable enough - given that President Robert Mugabe is still in the government - to lift sanctions, he said.
Reuters has estimated that a deal recognised by international donors could usher in some $1.5bn in aid.
But with all of Zimbabwe's institutions destroyed, it will take a great measure of stability before the country will be enticing to SA investors, said Roodt.
A gold analyst at an investment institution, who didn't want to be named, did expect an immediate increase in direct investment from South African mining companies, specifically in the platinum sector. Apart from SA, Zimbabwe has the biggest platinum reserves in the world.
Impala Platinum should be the first big investor to pump money into Zimbabwe.
The company, which already has the biggest exposure to Zimbabwe of all foreign miners, has vowed to invest more money if the political and economic situation improves.
According to the Financial Times, Anglo American has also already held secret talks with the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) about getting lucrative platinum mining concessions for Anglo Platinum should the opposition gain power.
Anglo has come under huge international pressure for its commitment to the Unki platinum project in Zimbabwe.
Local construction groups like Group Five, Murray & Roberts and Aveng are expected to benefit from mining infrastructure development.
While the Zimbabwean economy is in ruins, with annual inflation of more than 11 million percent and at least 80% of the population living below the poverty threshold, consumer spending won't be an immediate attraction for SA firms. But it is expected that retailers and cellphone groups - Zimbabwe has a low mobile communication penetration compared to the rest of the region - will be interested.
SA banks should also expand their operations. Standard Bank has a Zimbabwean unit and Absa's parent company Barclays had been in Zimbabwe for more than a century.
- Fin24.com