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Bleak election aftermath

SOUTH African voters, concerned about jobs and annoyed by rampant corruption, look set to ignore parties that have promised to fix these problems in favour of the ANC, the party during whose reign these ills have mushroomed.

As crazy as this may sound, most of the opinion polls that came out this week – which are imperfect themselves – show that the ANC is likely to emerge as an impressive winner in the May 7 elections.

For the sake of time and space, this article will only report on the poll conducted by a research unit of global investment house Nomura.

Peter Attard Montalto, a research analyst at Nomura, this week said he sees the ANC getting about 59% and the DA a healthy 26.0%.

“We expect EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) to do pretty well at 6.5% vs our previous forecast of 4.0% but turnout is likely to be key for them… However, we expect them to enter parliament as likely the third largest party,” Montalto said.

“We see Agang at 1.5% vs an initial forecast of 6.0%... damaged by the failed merger (with the DA) and running out of money,” he said adding that support for Congress of the People would fall 1.5% because of the previous leadership squabbles.

This means the ANC has managed to ride out rough storms and is on its way to another five years in power. I hope this does not give some of its members licence to be corrupt. But I digress.

Though tainted by allegations that he has spent R246m on renovations at his private homestead in Nkandla and despite being viewed with hostility by many, President Jacob Zuma has marketed himself as an economic reformer with the intention of restarting the economy and creating jobs.

"Over a period of time, the opposition parties have been talking about Nkandla instead of selling their policies. Nkandla has its own processes that (we) still have to go through," Zuma told supporters at a rally in Mpumalanga on Wednesday.

Though according to polls the ANC is likely to win the general elections, there are many whose attitudes towards the ANC may never change, no matter what.

The Citizen newspaper this week reported that South Africa’s Born Frees - those born 20 years ago when the first democratic elections were held – are not going to vote for the ANC, saying they want nothing to do with politics and do not see it as a priority.

Over one million of the Born Frees have not registered to vote for the May 7 national elections, with most of them saying none of the registered parties offer them what they are looking for.

The election itself will be one of the mostly fiercely contested polls since the first all-important elections 20 years ago. Though ANC victory for now seems certain, it could lead to more social tensions as the economy fails to grow faster and corruption continues unabated.

It is my belief that if the elections are won by the ANC under Zuma, as polls predict, confidence in the economy will take a knock. South Africa’s economy could embark on a freefall.

 - Fin24

*Mzwandile Jacks is an independent journalist. Opinions expressed are his own.
 
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